Related papers: Shock Propagation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Predicting when rupture occurs or cracks progress is a major challenge in numerous elds of industrial, societal and geophysical importance. It remains largely unsolved: Stress enhancement at cracks and defects, indeed, makes the macroscale…
The problem of sums of independent, identically distributed random variables with stretched-exponential tails exhibits a dynamical phase transition and has recently reemerged in the context of active transport and condensation phenomena. We…
In this paper we analyze the resilience of a network of banks to joint price fluctuations of the external assets in which they have shared exposures, and evaluate the worst-case effects of the possible default contagion. Indeed, when the…
We study the dynamics of the Internet topology based on the empirical data on the level of the autonomous systems. It is found that the fluctuations occurring in the stochastic process of connecting and disconnecting edges are important…
Based on the daily data of American and Chinese stock markets, the dynamic behavior of a financial network with static and dynamic thresholds is investigated. Compared with the static threshold, the dynamic threshold suppresses the large…
This paper studies the transmission of productivity shocks in general equilibrium production networks, when firms in different sectors operate under informational rigidity and rely on external debt. Rigidity breaks the Modigliani-Miller…
When can complex ecological interactions drive an entire ecosystem into a persistent non-equilibrium state, where species abundances keep fluctuating without going to extinction? We show that high-diversity spatially-extended systems, in…
"Noise-induced volatility" refers to a phenomenon of increased level of fluctuations in the collective dynamics of bistable units in the presence of a rapidly varying external signal, and intermediate noise levels. The archetypical…
Fluctuation scaling is observed phenomenon from complex networks through finance to ecology. It means that the variance and the mean of a specific quantity are related as $\ev{\sigma^2|n}\propto \ev{n|A}^{2\alpha}$ with $1/2\geq \alpha \geq…
This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six…
Recognising changes in collective dynamics in complex systems is essential for predicting potential events and their development. Possessing intrinsic attractors with laws associated with scale invariance, self-organised critical dynamics…
How is it that entropy derivatives almost in their own are characterizing the state of a system close to equilibrium, and what happens further away from it? We explain within the framework of Markov jump processes why fluctuation theory can…
Economic growth is conventionally analyzed at the national level, yet cities generate the bulk of global output. Here we construct GDP trajectories for 8,808 functional urban areas (FUAs) across 165 countries over 1993-2019 using…
We analyze the stability of financial investment networks, where financial institutions hold overlapping portfolios of assets. We consider the effect of portfolio diversification and heterogeneous investments using a random matrix dynamical…
Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping…
We consider fluctuations of the time-averaged current in the one-dimensional weakly-asymmetric exclusion process on a ring. The optimal density profile which sustains a given fluctuation exhibits an instability for low enough currents,…
We propose a new framework for measuring connectedness among financial variables that arises due to heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks. To estimate connectedness in short-, medium-, and long-term financial cycles, we introduce a…
Understanding how local perturbations induce the transient dynamics of a network of coupled units is essential to control and operate such systems. Often a perturbation initiated in one unit spreads to other units whose dynamical state they…
Societies experience politically stable and unstable phases along history, whereas political power is usually passed to new elite groups by these changes. Structural dynamics of the elites in a society have been proposed to be one of the…
Economic interdependencies have become increasingly present in globalized production, financial and trade systems. While establishing interdependencies among economic agents is crucial for the production of complex products, they may also…