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The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lev V. Utkin , Mikhail V. Kots , Viacheslav S. Chukanov

Digital travel platforms often operate multiple marketing journeys simultaneously, resulting in overlapping user exposures that bias the standard A/B lift estimation. Because traditional lift experiments assume treatment isolation, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Jorge Pellegrini

Uplift modeling estimates the causal effect of an intervention as the difference between potential outcomes under treatment and control, whereas counterfactual identification aims to recover the joint distribution of these potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Gianluca Bontempi

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an active area of research. Most of the existing methods, however, focus on estimating the conditional average treatment effects of a single, binary treatment given a set of pre-treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-30 Max Goplerud , Kosuke Imai , Nicole E. Pashley

Uplift modeling is a machine learning technique that aims to model treatment effects heterogeneity. It has been used in business and health sectors to predict the effect of a specific action on a given individual. Despite its advantages,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-04-20 Atef Shaar , Talel Abdessalem , Olivier Segard

Ordinal outcomes are common in clinical settings where they often represent increasing levels of disease progression or different levels of functional impairment. Such outcomes can characterize differences in meaningful patient health…

Improving user engagement and platform revenue is crucial for online marketing platforms. Uplift modeling is proposed to solve this problem, which applies different treatments (e.g., discounts, bonus) to satisfy corresponding users. Despite…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Zexu Sun , Qiyu Han , Minqin Zhu , Hao Gong , Dugang Liu , Chen Ma

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

Uplift modeling is a key technique for promotion optimization in recommender systems, but standard methods typically fail to account for interference, where treating one item affects the outcomes of others. This violation of the Stable Unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Bram van den Akker

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

There is tremendous interest in precision medicine as a means to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatment to individual characteristics. An individualized treatment rule formalizes precision medicine as a map from patient information…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-28 Daniel J. Luckett , Eric B. Laber , Michael R. Kosorok

Uplift modeling requires experimental data, preferably collected in random fashion. This places a logistical and financial burden upon any organisation aspiring such models. Once deployed, uplift models are subject to effects from concept…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-04 Jeroen Berrevoets , Wouter Verbeke

Causal representation learning has attracted significant research interest during the past few years, as a means for improving model generalization and robustness. Causal representations of interventional image pairs (also called…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Panagiotis Alimisis , Christos Diou

A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

Many real-world systems can be usefully represented as sets of interacting components. Examples include computational systems, such as query processors and compilers, natural systems, such as cells and ecosystems, and social systems, such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Purva Pruthi , David Jensen

This paper studies the problem of estimating individualized treatment rules when treatment effects are partially identified, as it is often the case with observational data. By drawing connections between the treatment assignment problem…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-02 Riccardo D'Adamo

A new matching method is proposed for the estimation of the average treatment effect of social policy interventions (e.g., training programs or health care measures). Given an outcome variable, a treatment and a set of pre-treatment…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Stefano Iacus , Giuseppe Porro

In this tech report we discuss the evaluation problem of contextual uplift modeling from the causal inference point of view. More particularly, we instantiate the individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation, and its evaluation counterpart.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-03 Christophe Renaudin , Matthieu Martin

We introduce a new preference-based framework for conditional treatment effect estimation and policy learning, built on the Conditional Preference-based Treatment Effect (CPTE). CPTE requires only that outcomes be ranked under a preference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-04 Dovid Parnas , Mathieu Even , Julie Josse , Uri Shalit