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Uplift modeling is widely used in performance marketing to estimate effects of promotion campaigns (e.g., increase of customer retention rate). Since it is impossible to observe outcomes of a recipient in treatment (e.g., receiving a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Yao Zhao , Haipeng Zhang , Shiwei Lyu , Ruiying Jiang , Jinjie Gu , Guannan Zhang

Estimating individual-level treatment effect from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal inference and has attracted increasing attention in the fields of education, healthcare, and public policy.In this work, we concentrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Hui Meng , Keping Yang , Xuyu Peng , Bo Zheng

Uplift modeling has emerged as a crucial technique for individualized treatment effect estimation, particularly in fields such as marketing and healthcare. Modeling uplift effects in multi-treatment scenarios plays a key role in real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Ruyue Zhang , Xiaopeng Ke , Ming Liu , Fangzhou Shi , Chang Men , Zhengdan Zhu

Modern causal decision-making increasingly demands individualized treatment-effect estimation in networks where interventions are high-dimensional, combinatorial vectors. While network interference, effect heterogeneity, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yunping Lu , Haoang Chi , Qirui Hu , Zhiheng Zhang

Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) prediction is an important area of research in machine learning which aims at explaining and estimating the causal impact of an action at the granular level. It represents a problem of growing interest in…

Estimating treatment effects is one of the most challenging and important tasks of data analysts. In many applications, like online marketing and personalized medicine, treatment needs to be allocated to the individuals where it yields a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-19 Björn Bokelmann , Stefan Lessmann

Uplift modeling is an area of machine learning which aims at predicting the causal effect of some action on a given individual. The action may be a medical procedure, marketing campaign, or any other circumstance controlled by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-23 Michał Sołtys , Szymon Jaroszewicz

Uplift modeling has achieved significant success in various fields, particularly in online marketing. It is a method that primarily utilizes machine learning and deep learning to estimate individual treatment effects. This paper we apply…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Xinlin Wang , Mats Brorsson

This paper introduces a marketing decision framework that optimizes customer targeting by integrating heterogeneous treatment effect estimation with explicit business guardrails. The objective is to maximize revenue and retention while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Deepit Sapru

Uplift modeling has been used effectively in fields such as marketing and customer retention, to target those customers who are more likely to respond due to the campaign or treatment. Essentially, it is a machine learning technique that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-10 Kun Li , Liangshu Zhu

Efficiently allocating treatments with a budget constraint constitutes an important challenge across various domains. In marketing, for example, the use of promotions to target potential customers and boost conversions is limited by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Toon Vanderschueren , Wouter Verbeke , Felipe Moraes , Hugo Manuel Proença

Estimating causal effects is vital for decision making. In standard causal effect estimation, treatments are usually binary- or continuous-valued. However, in many important real-world settings, treatments can be structured,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-02 Oriol Corcoll Andreu , Athanasios Vlontzos , Michael O'Riordan , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Uplift modeling and Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) estimation aim at predicting the causal effect of an action, such as a medical treatment or a marketing campaign on a specific individual. In this paper, we focus on data from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Krzysztof Rudaś , Szymon Jaroszewicz

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Nikita Dhawan , Arnav Paruthi , Andrew Kim , Lovedeep Gondara , Jekaterina Novikova , Chris J. Maddison

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

Today, treatment effect estimation at the individual level is a vital problem in many areas of science and business. For example, in marketing, estimates of the treatment effect are used to select the most efficient promo-mechanics; in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-04 Aleksey Buzmakov , Daria Semenova , Maria Temirkaeva

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Bin Yu

The simultaneous application of multiple treatments is increasingly common in many fields, such as healthcare and marketing. In such scenarios, it is important to estimate the single treatment effects and the interaction treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Yuki Murakami , Takumi Hattori , Kohsuke Kubota

In online advertising, marketing interventions such as coupons introduce significant confounding bias into Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. Observed clicks reflect a mixture of users' intrinsic preferences and the uplift induced by…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Siyun Yang , Shixiao Yang , Jian Wang , Di Fan , Kehe Cai , Haoyan Fu , Jiaming Zhang , Wenjin Wu , Peng Jiang

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced…