Related papers: Asymptotically Optimal Sequential Testing with Mar…
We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…
The problem of simultaneously testing the marginal distributions of sequentially monitored, independent data streams is considered. The decisions for the various testing problems can be made at different times, using data from all streams,…
We study the problem of sequentially testing whether a given stochastic process is generated by a known Markov chain. Formally, given access to a stream of random variables, we want to quickly determine whether this sequence is a trajectory…
We study stochastic approximation procedures for approximately solving a $d$-dimensional linear fixed point equation based on observing a trajectory of length $n$ from an ergodic Markov chain. We first exhibit a non-asymptotic bound of the…
Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…
We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…
Under mild Markov assumptions, sufficient conditions for strict minimax optimality of sequential tests for multiple hypotheses under distributional uncertainty are derived. First, the design of optimal sequential tests for simple hypotheses…
We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…
In this paper, we study the problem of estimating a Markov chain $X$(signal) from its noisy partial information $Y$, when the transition probability kernel depends on some unknown parameters. Our goal is to compute the conditional…
A new model for controlled sensing for multihypothesis testing is proposed and studied in the sequential setting. This new model, termed {\em controlled Markovian observation} model, exhibits a more complicated memory structure in the…
For a discrete time Markov chain and in line with Strotz' consistent planning we develop a framework for problems of optimal stopping that are time-inconsistent due to the consideration of a non-linear function of an expected reward. We…
The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for testing general hypothesis in a Markovian setting with random sampling. A discrete Markov chain X is observed at random time intervals $\tau$ k, assumed to be iid with unknown…
Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are…
We establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the classical Maximal Likelihood Estimation of the transition matrix of a given Markov chain. Meanwhile, in the reversible case, we propose a new reversibility-preserving online Symmetric…
We describe an exact test of the null hypothesis that a Markov chain is nth order versus the alternate hypothesis that it is $(n+1)$-th order. The procedure does not rely on asymptotic properties, but instead builds up the test statistic…
Sequential tests and their implied confidence sequences, which are valid at arbitrary stopping times, promise flexible statistical inference and on-the-fly decision making. However, strong guarantees are limited to parametric sequential…
This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…
We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…
Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…
This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…