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We revisit the problem of statistical sequence matching initiated by Unnikrishnan (TIT 2015) and derive theoretical performance guarantees for sequential tests that have bounded expected stopping times. Specifically, in this problem, one is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Lin Zhou , Qianyun Wang , Yun Wei , Jingjing Wang

The sequential multiple testing problem is considered under two generalized error metrics. Under the first one, the probability of at least $k$ mistakes, of any kind, is controlled. Under the second, the probabilities of at least $k_1$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-18 Yanglei Song , Georgios Fellouris

We consider continuous-time Markov chains on integers which allow transitions to adjacent states only, with alternating rates. We give explicit formulas for probability generating functions, and also for means, variances and state…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-30 Luisa Beghin , Claudio Macci , Barbara Martinucci

We focus on one-sided, mixture-based stopping rules for the problem of sequential testing a simple null hypothesis against a composite alternative. For the latter, we consider two cases---either a discrete alternative or a continuous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-04-25 Georgios Fellouris , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

This paper presents new sufficient conditions for convergence and asymptotic or exponential stability of a stochastic discrete-time system, under which the constructed Lyapunov function always decreases in expectation along the system's…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-06-05 Yuzhen Qin , Ming Cao , Brian D. O. Anderson

Given access to a single long trajectory generated by an unknown irreducible Markov chain $M$, we simulate an $\alpha$-lazy version of $M$ which is ergodic. This enables us to generalize recent results on estimation and identity testing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-02 Sela Fried , Geoffrey Wolfer

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which automatically tune their parameters based on past samples, have proved extremely useful in practice. The self-tuning mechanism makes them `non-Markovian', which means that their…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-28 Pietari Laitinen , Matti Vihola

Sequential scaling is a prominent inference-time scaling paradigm, yet its performance improvements are typically modest and not well understood, largely due to the prevalence of heuristic, non-principled approaches that obscure clear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Youkang Wang , Jian Wang , Rubing Chen , Tianyi Zeng , Xiao-Yong Wei , Qing Li

We study a variation of vanilla stochastic gradient descent where the optimizer only has access to a Markovian sampling scheme. These schemes encompass applications that range from decentralized optimization with a random walker (token…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-26 Mathieu Even

Mostof the existing literature on supervised machine learning problems focuses on the case when the training data set is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many practical problems are characterized by temporal dependence and strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-23 Nikola Sandrić , Stjepan Šebek

This paper develops a new approach to the estimation of the degree of boundedness or stability of multidimensional nonlinear systems with time-dependent nonperiodic coefficients-an essential task in various engineering and natural science…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-06-16 Mark A. Pinsky

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Gert de Cooman , Filip Hermans , Erik Quaeghebeur

This paper is devoted to studying the average optimality in continuous-time Markov decision processes with fairly general state and action spaces. The criterion to be maximized is expected average rewards. The transition rates of underlying…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Xianping Guo , Ulrich Rieder

Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-22 Thomas Krak , Jasper De Bock , Arno Siebes

In this paper, we study sequential testing problems with \emph{overlapping} hypotheses. We first focus on the simple problem of assessing if the mean $\mu$ of a Gaussian distribution is smaller or larger than a fixed $\epsilon>0$; if…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-19 Aurélien Garivier , Emilie Kaufmann

We obtain the first probabilistic proof of continuous differentiability of time-dependent optimal boundaries in optimal stopping problems. The underlying stochastic dynamics is a one-dimensional, time-inhomogeneous diffusion. The gain…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Tiziano De Angelis , Damien Lamberton

We study the asymptotic behavior of continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous Markovian quantum dynamics in a stationary random environment. Under mild faithfulness and eventually positivity-improving assumptions, the normalized evolution…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-12 Lubashan Pathirana , Jeffrey Schenker

In this paper we investigate the asymptotic statistical theory of irreducible quantum Markov chains, focusing on identifiability properties and asymptotic convergence of associated quantum statistical models. We show that the space of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Federico Girotti , Jukka Kiukas , Mădălin Guţă

Suppose that at any stage of a statistical experiment a control variable $X$ that affects the distribution of the observed data $Y$ at this stage can be used. The distribution of $Y$ depends on some unknown parameter $\theta$, and we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-23 Andrey Novikov

In this paper, the question of expected time to convergence is addressed for unbiased quantized consensus on undirected connected graphs, and some strong results are obtained. The paper first provides a tight expression for the expected…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Seyed Rasoul Etesami , Tamer Basar
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