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We offer a survey of recent results on covariance estimation for heavy-tailed distributions. By unifying ideas scattered in the literature, we propose user-friendly methods that facilitate practical implementation. Specifically, we…
High-dimensional covariance estimation is notoriously sensitive to outliers. While statistically optimal estimators exist for general heavy-tailed distributions, they often rely on computationally expensive techniques like semidefinite…
We consider estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles for heavy-tailed data that are right-censored. We study a general procedure of removing low importance observations in tail estimators. This trimming procedure is…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal…
Calibrated probabilistic classifiers are models whose predicted probabilities can directly be interpreted as uncertainty estimates. It has been shown recently that deep neural networks are poorly calibrated and tend to output overconfident…
Recently many regularized estimators of large covariance matrices have been proposed, and the tuning parameters in these estimators are usually selected via cross-validation. However, there is no guideline on the number of folds for…
Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset. A standard…
Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…
Using normal approximation (NA) to construct a kernel-smoother-based confidence interval faces a fundamental challenge: the normalization makes a small estimation bias become a non-negligible inferential bias. This paper takes a different…
Cross-validation is a widely used technique for evaluating the performance of prediction models, ranging from simple binary classification to complex precision medicine strategies. It helps correct for optimism bias in error estimates,…
Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…
Sliced Wasserstein distances preserve properties of classic Wasserstein distances while being more scalable for computation and estimation in high dimensions. The goal of this work is to quantify this scalability from three key aspects: (i)…
We study the problem of linear regression where both covariates and responses are potentially (i) heavy-tailed and (ii) adversarially contaminated. Several computationally efficient estimators have been proposed for the simpler setting…
We present a methodology for predictable and safe covariance steering control of uncertain nonlinear stochastic processes. The systems under consideration are subject to general uncertainties, which include unbounded random disturbances…
During the last few decades, online controlled experiments (also known as A/B tests) have been adopted as a golden standard for measuring business improvements in industry. In our company, there are more than a billion users participating…
We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…
Certified robustness in machine learning has primarily focused on adversarial perturbations of the input with a fixed attack budget for each point in the data distribution. In this work, we present provable robustness guarantees on the…
Tuning parameters in supervised learning problems are often estimated by cross-validation. The minimum value of the cross-validation error can be biased downward as an estimate of the test error at that same value of the tuning parameter.…
The estimation of covariance operators of spatio-temporal data is in many applications only computationally feasible under simplifying assumptions, such as separability of the covariance into strictly temporal and spatial factors.Powerful…
We revisit heavy-tailed corrupted least-squares linear regression assuming to have a corrupted $n$-sized label-feature sample of at most $\epsilon n$ arbitrary outliers. We wish to estimate a $p$-dimensional parameter $b^*$ given such…