Related papers: Computable Bernstein Certificates for Cross-Fitted…
This paper studies the problem of estimating the covariance of a collection of vectors using only highly compressed measurements of each vector. An estimator based on back-projections of these compressive samples is proposed and analyzed. A…
In this paper, we identify the criteria for the selection of the minimal and most efficient covariate adjustment sets for the regression calibration method developed by Carroll, Rupert and Stefanski (CRS, 1992), used to correct bias due to…
The expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) denotes the value of eliminating uncertainty on a subset of unknown parameters involved in a decision model. The EVPPI can be regarded as a decision-theoretic sensitivity index, and…
Corrected confidence intervals are developed for the mean of the second component of a bivariate normal process when the first component is being monitored sequentially. This is accomplished by constructing a first approximation to a…
We study the normal mean inference problem, which involves simultaneous testing of the means of many normal distributions. This problem has been extensively studied within the empirical Bayes (EB) framework. However, the reliability of most…
Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials.…
Calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used to assess the quality of univariate distributional forecasts. However, PIT-based calibration tests for multivariate distributional forecasts face various…
Understanding the confidence with which a machine learning model classifies an input datum is an important, and perhaps under-investigated, concept. In this paper, we propose a new calibration metric, the Entropic Calibration Difference…
Safety-critical autonomous systems must satisfy hard state constraints under tight computational and sensing budgets, yet learning-based controllers are often far more complex than safe operation requires. To formalize this gap, we study…
We introduce a class of regularized M-estimators of multivariate scatter and show, analogous to the popular spatial sign covariance matrix (SSCM), that they possess high breakdown points. We also show that the SSCM can be viewed as an…
Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…
In this work, we propose a mean-squared error-based risk that enables the comparison and optimization of estimators of squared calibration errors in practical settings. Improving the calibration of classifiers is crucial for enhancing the…
Cross-validation under sample selection bias can, in principle, be done by importance-weighting the empirical risk. However, the importance-weighted risk estimator produces sub-optimal hyperparameter estimates in problem settings where…
We study optimal variance reduction solutions for count and ratio metrics in online controlled experiments. Our methods leverage flexible machine learning tools to incorporate covariates that are independent from the treatment but have…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation at high confidence levels is inherently a rare-event problem and is particularly sensitive to tail behavior and model misspecification. This paper studies the performance of two simulation-based VaR estimation…
We introduce a trimmed version of the Hill estimator for the index of a heavy-tailed distribution, which is robust to perturbations in the extreme order statistics. In the ideal Pareto setting, the estimator is essentially finite-sample…
Computable Stein discrepancies have been deployed for a variety of applications, ranging from sampler selection in posterior inference to approximate Bayesian inference to goodness-of-fit testing. Existing convergence-determining Stein…
We study nonparametric estimation of univariate cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) pertaining to data missing at random. The proposed estimators smooth the inverse probability weighted (IPW) empirical CDF with the Bernstein operator,…
For an AI system to be reliable, the confidence it expresses in its decisions must match its accuracy. To assess the degree of match, examples are typically binned by confidence and the per-bin mean confidence and accuracy are compared.…
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach…