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Work sharing and work stealing are two scheduling paradigms to redistribute work when performing distributed computations. In work sharing, processors attempt to migrate pending jobs to other processors in the hope of reducing response…
This paper derives "scaling laws"--empirical relationships between the training compute of Large Language Models (LLMs) and their performance--for economic outcomes. In a preregistered online experiment, 300 professional translators…
We construct a financial "Turing test" to determine whether human subjects can differentiate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game (http://arora.ccs.neu.edu) where players are…
To take sample biases and skewness in the observations into account, practitioners frequently weight their observations according to some marginal distribution. The present paper demonstrates that such weighting can indeed improve the…
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I…
Although both data availability and the demand for accurate forecasts are increasing, collaboration between stakeholders is often constrained by data ownership and competitive interests. In contrast to recent proposals within cooperative…
We study a model of temporal voting where there is a fixed time horizon, and at each round the voters report their preferences over the available candidates and a single candidate is selected. Prior work has adapted popular notions of…
Time series models, typically trained on numerical data, are designed to forecast future values. These models often rely on weighted averaging techniques over time intervals. However, real-world time series data is seldom isolated and is…
Choice overload - in which larger choice sets are detrimental to a chooser's well-being - is potentially of great importance in the design of economic policy. Yet the current evidence on its prevalence is inconclusive. We argue that…
This paper explores different methods to estimate prices paid per efficiency unit of labor in panel data. We study the sensitivity of skill price estimates to different assumptions regarding workers' choice problem, identification…
We consider the problem of an aggregator attempting to learn customers' load flexibility models while implementing a load shaping program by means of broadcasting daily dispatch signals. We adopt a multi-armed bandit formulation to account…
Rapid technological innovation threatens to leave much of the global workforce behind. Today's economy juxtaposes white-hot demand for skilled labor against stagnant employment prospects for workers unprepared to participate in a digital…
Street-level bureaucrats, such as caseworkers and border guards routinely face the dilemma of whether to follow rigid policy or exercise discretion based on professional judgement. However, frequent overrides threaten consistency and…
This paper examines the impact of increasing minimum wages, focusing primarily on their effect on employment. Our research involved analyzing the statistics of panel data, testing fixed effects and stationary, conducting linear regression,…
We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time…
Many countries have adopted negative interest rate policies with tiering remuneration, which allows for exemption from negative rates. This practice has led to higher interbank trading volumes, with market rates ranging between zero and the…
We present statistical tests for the continuous martingale hypothesis. That is, whether an observed process is a continuous local martingale, or equivalently a continuous time-changed Brownian motion. Our technique is based on the concept…
There is a strong association between the quality of the writing in a resume for new labor market entrants and whether those entrants are ultimately hired. We show that this relationship is, at least partially, causal: a field experiment in…
Personal income distributions in Japan are analyzed empirically and a simple stochastic model of the income process is proposed. Based on empirical facts, we propose a minimal two-factor model. Our model of personal income consists of an…
This paper examines the extent to which individual time preferences are associated with the willingness to accept different tax burdens. The first is an intertemporal redistribution in which a current consumption tax increase is exchanged…