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Although the scientific principles of anthropogenic climate change are well-established, existing calculations of the warming effect of carbon dioxide rely on spectral absorption databases, which obscures the physical foundations of the…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-01-30 Robin Wordsworth , Jacob Seeley , Keith Shine

Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based-on an early coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation, that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-14 Isobel Parry , Paul Ritchie , Peter Cox

Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of…

We present a novel quasi-Bayesian method to weight multiple dynamical models by their skill at capturing both potentially non-linear trends and first-order autocorrelated variability of the underlying process, and to make weighted…

Applications · Statistics 2019-04-18 Roman Olson , Soon-Il An , Yanan Fan , Jason P. Evans

The sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is an important element of the climate and ocean system in the Northern Hemisphere as it impacts albedo, atmospheric pressure regimes, CO2-exchange at the ocean/atmosphere interface as well as the North…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-02-09 Claude Hillaire-Marcel , Anne de Vernal , Michel Crucifix

Based on observations and climate model results, it has been suggested that the recent slowdown of global warming trends (climate hiatus), which took place in the early 2000s, might be due to enhanced ocean heat uptake. Here we suggest an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-03-06 Jun Yin , Amilcare Porporato

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-02-08 Kelsey L. Ruckert , Gary Shaffer , David Pollard , Yawen Guan , Tony E. Wong , Chris E. Forest , Klaus Keller

We study the stability properties of hydrodynamic shocks with finite Mach numbers. The linear analysis supplements previous analyses which took the strong shock limit. We derive the linearised equations for a general specific heat ratio as…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Babulakshmanan Ramachandran , Michael D. Smith

Monitoring the dynamics of global land-ocean cover is fundamental for regulating the Earth's climate and sustaining terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, existing datasets and research often exhibit limitations in temporal resolution…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Lixing Wang , Tao Li , Xinyu Dou , Zhu Liu

Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-10-29 Nicola Scafetta

Global climate changes are related to the ocean's store of carbon. We study a carbonate system of the upper ocean, which has metastable and oscillatory regimes, under small random fluctuations. We calculate the most probable transition path…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-15 Wei Wei , Jianyu Hu , Jianyu Chen , Jinqiao Duan

One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-08-14 Maya Ben-Yami , Andreas Morr , Sebastian Bathiany , Niklas Boers

Diffraction beams generated by an acousto-optic modulator (AOM) are widely used in various optical experiments, some of which require high angular stability with the temporal modulation of optical power. Usually, it is difficult to realize…

Instrumentation and Detectors · Physics 2022-01-31 Xiao Zhang , Yang Chen , Jianxiong Fang , Tishuo Wang , Jiaming Li , Le Luo

Nonlinear dynamical systems may be exposed to tipping points, critical thresholds at which small changes in the external inputs or in the systems parameters abruptly shift the system to an alternative state with a contrasting dynamical…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-10-07 Everton S. Medeiros , Iberê L. Caldas , Murilo S. Baptista , Ulrike Feudel

The stability of Earth's climate on geological timescales is enabled by the carbon-silicate cycle that acts as a negative feedback mechanism stabilizing surface temperatures via the intake and outgas of atmospheric carbon. On Earth, this…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-02 Diana Valencia , Vivian Yun Yan Tan , Zachary Zajac

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3{\deg}C (2$\sigma$) per W/m$^2$. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full…

Observations show that the lower thermosphere of Mars ($\sim$100--140 km) is up to 40 K colder than the current general circulation models (GCMs) can reproduce. Possible candidates for physical processes missing in the models are larger…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-04-22 Alexander S. Medvedev , Francisco González-Galindo , Erdal Yiğit , Artem G. Feofilov , François Forget , Paul Hartogh

We describe a framework for calculating the frequency shift and uncertainty of trapped-ion optical atomic clocks caused by background-gas collisions, and apply this framework to an $^{27}$Al$^+$ clock to enable a total fractional systematic…

A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-02-28 Bernd Albert Berg

The spin-orbit coupling (SOC) affecting the center of mass of ultracold atoms can be simulated using a properly chosen periodic sequence of magnetic pulses. Yet such a method is generally accompanied by micro-motion which hinders a precise…