Related papers: Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid c…
Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…
A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the…
The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such tipping can have significant climate impacts, it is important to understand the mechanisms at play…
It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping…
The early detection of tipping points, which describe a rapid departure from a stable state, is an important theoretical and practical challenge. Tipping points are most commonly associated with the disappearance of steady-state or periodic…
We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…
The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…
The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the…
(Abridged) We discuss the nonlinear development of the isobaric mode of thermal instability (TI) in the context of the atomic interstellar medium (ISM), in order to assess the ability of TI to establish a well-segregated multi-phase…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
The variation in the Arctic sea ice is dominated by the seasonal cycle with little inter-annual correlation. Though the mean sea ice area has decreased steadily in the period of satellite observations, a dramatic transition in the dynamics…
We investigate ocean circulation changes through the lens of data assimilation using a reduced-order model. Our primary interest lies in the Stommel box model which reveals itself to be one of the most practicable models that has the…
The geological record shows links between glacial cycles and volcanic productivity, both subaerially and at mid-ocean ridges. Sea-level-driven pressure changes could also affect chemical properties of mid-ocean ridge volcanism. We consider…
Knowledge about deep-ocean turbulent mixing and flow circulation above abyssal hilly plains is important to quantify processes for the modelling of resuspension and dispersal of sediments in areas where turbulence sources are expected to be…
In this study, we examine the driving mechanism for the atmospheric overturning circulation on dry, tidally-locked rocky planets without the condensation of water vapor or other species. We find that the main driving process is the…
We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long model trajectory, we show that blockings are associated with…
A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model…
We investigate the Mach number dependence of the radiative overstability of shocks. We find that the stability of radiative shocks increases with decreasing Mach number, with the result that M=2 shocks require cooling exponents < -1.2 to be…
Abrupt transitions are a central concern in climate and ecological research, and may arise when critical thresholds known as tipping points are crossed. However, previous work has shown that finite-time overshoots of tipping points can be…
Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…