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Designing effective score functions in Conformal Prediction (CP) for time-series data remains challenging due to conservativeness and/or computational inefficiency. We propose Optimal Selection Conformal Prediction (OSCP), which…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Boyu Pang , Kostas Margellos

We study the prediction with expert advice setting, where the aim is to produce a decision by combining the decisions generated by a set of experts, e.g., independently running algorithms. We achieve the min-max optimal dynamic regret under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-09 Hakan Gokcesu , Suleyman S. Kozat

In this work, we explore online convex optimization (OCO) and introduce a new condition and analysis that provides fast rates by exploiting the curvature of feasible sets. In online linear optimization, it is known that if the average…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Taira Tsuchiya , Shinji Ito

We formalize sequential decision-making with information acquisition as the probing-augmented user-centric selection (PUCS) framework, where a learner first probes a subset of arms to obtain side information on resources and rewards, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Tianyi Xu , Yiting Chen , Henger Li , Zheyong Bian , Emiliano Dall'Anese , Zizhan Zheng

We study nonstationary Online Linear Programming (OLP), where $n$ orders arrive sequentially with reward-resource consumption pairs that form a sequence of independent, but not necessarily identically distributed, random vectors. At the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Haoran Xu , Owen Shen , Peter Glynn , Yinyu Ye , Patrick Jaillet

We study the decentralized online regularized linear regression algorithm over random time-varying graphs. At each time step, every node runs an online estimation algorithm consisting of an innovation term processing its own new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Xiwei Zhang , Tao Li , Xiaozheng Fu

We propose an online convex optimization algorithm (RescaledExp) that achieves optimal regret in the unconstrained setting without prior knowledge of any bounds on the loss functions. We prove a lower bound showing an exponential separation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-09 Ashok Cutkosky , Kwabena Boahen

Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Haosen Ge , Hamsa Bastani , Osbert Bastani

In this paper, we study adaptive online convex optimization, and aim to design a universal algorithm that achieves optimal regret bounds for multiple common types of loss functions. Existing universal methods are limited in the sense that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-16 Guanghui Wang , Shiyin Lu , Lijun Zhang

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

We study the online calibration of multi-dimensional forecasts over an arbitrary convex set $\mathcal{P} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ relative to an arbitrary norm $\Vert\cdot\Vert$. We connect this with the problem of external regret minimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Maxwell Fishelson , Noah Golowich , Mehryar Mohri , Jon Schneider

Conformal unlearning aims to ensure that a trained conformal predictor miscovers data points with specific shared characteristics, such as those from a particular label class, associated with a specific user, or belonging to a defined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Yahya Alkhatib , Muhammad Ahmar Jamal , Wee Peng Tay

We present the OMG-CMDP! algorithm for regret minimization in adversarial Contextual MDPs. The algorithm operates under the minimal assumptions of realizable function class and access to online least squares and log loss regression oracles.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-15 Orin Levy , Alon Cohen , Asaf Cassel , Yishay Mansour

In many modern applications, a system must dynamically choose between several adaptive learning algorithms that are trained online. Examples include model selection in streaming environments, switching between trading strategies in finance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Ilgam Latypov , Alexandra Suvorikova , Alexey Kroshnin , Alexander Gasnikov , Yuriy Dorn

In the research field of big data, one of important issues is how to recover the sequentially changing sets of true features when the data sets arrive sequentially. The paper presents a general framework for online updating variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-22 Xiaoyu Ma , Lu Lin , Yujie Gai

We study Constrained Online Convex Optimization with Memory (COCO-M), where both the loss and the constraints depend on a finite window of past decisions made by the learner. This setting extends the previously studied unconstrained online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Mohammed Abdullah , George Iosifidis , Salah Eddine Elayoubi , Tijani Chahed

We consider a variant of the classical online linear optimization problem in which at every step, the online player receives a "hint" vector before choosing the action for that round. Rather surprisingly, it was shown that if the hint…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-05 Aditya Bhaskara , Ashok Cutkosky , Ravi Kumar , Manish Purohit

We consider prediction with expert advice for strongly convex and bounded losses, and investigate trade-offs between regret and "variance" (i.e., squared difference of learner's predictions and best expert predictions). With $K$ experts,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Dirk van der Hoeven , Nikita Zhivotovskiy , Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

This paper revisits the online learning approach to inverse linear optimization studied by B\"armann et al. (2017), where the goal is to infer an unknown linear objective function of an agent from sequential observations of the agent's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Shinsaku Sakaue , Han Bao , Taira Tsuchiya