Related papers: Online Conformal Prediction via Universal Portfoli…
Designing effective score functions in Conformal Prediction (CP) for time-series data remains challenging due to conservativeness and/or computational inefficiency. We propose Optimal Selection Conformal Prediction (OSCP), which…
We study the prediction with expert advice setting, where the aim is to produce a decision by combining the decisions generated by a set of experts, e.g., independently running algorithms. We achieve the min-max optimal dynamic regret under…
In this work, we explore online convex optimization (OCO) and introduce a new condition and analysis that provides fast rates by exploiting the curvature of feasible sets. In online linear optimization, it is known that if the average…
We formalize sequential decision-making with information acquisition as the probing-augmented user-centric selection (PUCS) framework, where a learner first probes a subset of arms to obtain side information on resources and rewards, and…
We study nonstationary Online Linear Programming (OLP), where $n$ orders arrive sequentially with reward-resource consumption pairs that form a sequence of independent, but not necessarily identically distributed, random vectors. At the…
We study the decentralized online regularized linear regression algorithm over random time-varying graphs. At each time step, every node runs an online estimation algorithm consisting of an innovation term processing its own new…
We propose an online convex optimization algorithm (RescaledExp) that achieves optimal regret in the unconstrained setting without prior knowledge of any bounds on the loss functions. We prove a lower bound showing an exponential separation…
Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label…
In this paper, we study adaptive online convex optimization, and aim to design a universal algorithm that achieves optimal regret bounds for multiple common types of loss functions. Existing universal methods are limited in the sense that…
Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…
We study the online calibration of multi-dimensional forecasts over an arbitrary convex set $\mathcal{P} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ relative to an arbitrary norm $\Vert\cdot\Vert$. We connect this with the problem of external regret minimization…
Conformal unlearning aims to ensure that a trained conformal predictor miscovers data points with specific shared characteristics, such as those from a particular label class, associated with a specific user, or belonging to a defined…
We present the OMG-CMDP! algorithm for regret minimization in adversarial Contextual MDPs. The algorithm operates under the minimal assumptions of realizable function class and access to online least squares and log loss regression oracles.…
In many modern applications, a system must dynamically choose between several adaptive learning algorithms that are trained online. Examples include model selection in streaming environments, switching between trading strategies in finance,…
In the research field of big data, one of important issues is how to recover the sequentially changing sets of true features when the data sets arrive sequentially. The paper presents a general framework for online updating variable…
We study Constrained Online Convex Optimization with Memory (COCO-M), where both the loss and the constraints depend on a finite window of past decisions made by the learner. This setting extends the previously studied unconstrained online…
We consider a variant of the classical online linear optimization problem in which at every step, the online player receives a "hint" vector before choosing the action for that round. Rather surprisingly, it was shown that if the hint…
We consider prediction with expert advice for strongly convex and bounded losses, and investigate trade-offs between regret and "variance" (i.e., squared difference of learner's predictions and best expert predictions). With $K$ experts,…
Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…
This paper revisits the online learning approach to inverse linear optimization studied by B\"armann et al. (2017), where the goal is to infer an unknown linear objective function of an agent from sequential observations of the agent's…