English

Efficient Quantification of Time-Series Prediction Error: Optimal Selection Conformal Prediction

Optimization and Control 2026-05-05 v4

Abstract

Designing effective score functions in Conformal Prediction (CP) for time-series data remains challenging due to conservativeness and/or computational inefficiency. We propose Optimal Selection Conformal Prediction (OSCP), which parameterizes the score function via offset terms. To determine these parameters, we formulate a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that minimizes an empirical proxy of the region size. We further reformulate this optimization problem into a smaller form (fewer constraints) to improve computational efficiency. We provide theoretical guarantees on both validity and CP-efficiency of OSCP. Numerical experiments demonstrate that OSCP reduces uncertainty-set size and has much lower computational requirements compared to the state-of-the-art method.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2511.02103,
  title  = {Efficient Quantification of Time-Series Prediction Error: Optimal Selection Conformal Prediction},
  author = {Boyu Pang and Kostas Margellos},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.02103},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

Accepted to 2026 European Control Conference

R2 v1 2026-07-01T07:20:20.666Z