Related papers: A Survival Framework for Estimating Child Mortalit…
Unintended pregnancy and abortion estimates are needed to inform and motivate investment in global health programmes and policies. Variability in the availability and reliability of data poses challenges for producing estimates. We…
When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial…
We briefly communicate results of a nonparametric and robust evaluation of effects of \emph{the Fourth Millennium Development Goal of United Nations}. Main aim of the goal was reducing by two thirds, between 1990--2015, the under five…
The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable…
As populations age, the rise of multimorbidity poses a significant healthcare challenge. However, our ability to quantitatively forecast the progression of multimorbidity remains limited. Leveraging a nationwide dataset comprising…
We investigate the decline of infant mortality in 42 low and middle income countries (LMIC) using detailed micro data from 84 Demographic and Health Surveys. We estimate infant mortality risk for each infant in our data and develop a novel…
Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We compiled data and developed a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model for…
The predictive machine learning models for child mortality tend to be inaccurate when applied to future populations, since they suffer from look-ahead bias due to the randomization used in cross-validation. The Demographic and Health…
A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…
Objective: Cause-of-death distributions are important for prioritising interventions. We estimated proportions, risks, and numbers of deaths (with uncertainty) for programme-relevant causes of neonatal death for 194 countries for 2000-2013,…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
In the evolving world, we require more additionally the young era to flourish and evolve into developed land. Most of the population all around the world are unaware of the complications involved in the routine they follow while they are…
Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…
Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex…
The wealth of nations and the health of populations are intimately strongly associated, yet the extent to which economic prosperity (GDP per capita) causes improved health remains disputed. The purpose of this article is to analyze the…
The majority of biomedical studies use limited datasets that may not generalize over large heterogeneous datasets that have been collected over several decades. The current paper develops and validates several multimodal models that can…
Childhood obesity remains a major public health challenge in the United States, strongly influenced by a combination of individual-level, household-level, and environmental-level risk factors. Traditional epidemiological studies typically…
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…
Background: We estimate the overall quality of response to the Covid-19 pandemic in the first 18 months, using a small number of known parameters and a proposed method that is reasonably robust to the uncertainties in the data. Methods: The…
Bayesian nonparametric marginal methods are very popular since they lead to fairly easy implementation due to the formal marginalization of the infinite-dimensional parameter of the model. However, the straightforwardness of these methods…