Related papers: A Survival Framework for Estimating Child Mortalit…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
Civil registration vital statistics (CRVS) data are used to produce national estimates of maternal mortality, but are often subject to substantial reporting errors due to misclassification of maternal deaths. The accuracy of CRVS systems…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
Undernutrition, resulting in restricted growth, and quantified here using height-for-age z-scores, is an important contributor to childhood morbidity and mortality. Since all levels of mild, moderate and severe undernutrition are of…
Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…
Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
BACKGROUND There is an increasing demand for high quality subnational estimates of under-five mortality. In low and middle income countries, where the burden of under-five mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking and…
Analysis of child mortality is crucial as it pertains to the policy and programs of a country. The early assessment of patterns and trends in causes of child mortality help decision-makers assess needs, prioritize interventions, and monitor…
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is the single largest and most detailed scientific effort ever conducted to quantify levels and trends in health. This global health model to estimate mortality rates and…
Hundreds of millions of people live in countries that do not have complete death registration systems, meaning that most deaths are not recorded and critical quantities like life expectancy cannot be directly measured. The sibling survival…
The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and…
We develop a Gaussian process ("GP") framework for modeling mortality rates and mortality improvement factors. GP regression is a nonparametric, data-driven approach for determining the spatial dependence in mortality rates and jointly…
We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…
Chronic diseases are long-lasting conditions that require lifelong medical attention. Using big EMR data, we have developed early disease risk prediction models for five common chronic diseases: diabetes, hypertension, CKD, COPD, and…
There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…
We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…
In recent years, a wide range of mortality models has been proposed to address the diverse factors influencing mortality rates, which has highlighted the need to perform model selection. Traditional mortality model selection methods, such…
In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919…
Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…