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Joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data has become increasingly important in medical research, particularly for understanding disease progression in chronic conditions where both repeated biomarker measurements and time-to-event…
Many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data, including many household sample surveys, are used to estimate…
Family planning is a global development priority and a key indicator of reproductive health. Monitoring progress is challenged by gaps in survey data across countries. The United Nations Population Division addresses this with the Family…
In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
There is an increasing focus on reducing inequalities in health outcomes in developing countries. Subnational variation is of particular interest, with geographic data used to understand the spatial risk of detrimental outcomes and to…
In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for guiding policy and identifying disparities. Many indicators of interest are proportions of binary outcomes and…
The study of mortality patterns is a popular research topic in many areas. We are particularly interested in mortality patterns among main causes of death associated with age-gender combinations. We use symbolic data analysis (SDA) and…
Survival models are a popular tool for the analysis of time to event data with applications in medicine, engineering, economics, and many more. Advances like the Cox proportional hazard model have enabled researchers to better describe…
This paper presents an application of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) for analyzing age-specific death rates (ASDRs), constituting a longitudinal dataset with repeated measurements over time. GEE models, known for their robustness in…
Survival analysis is a fundamental tool for modeling time-to-event data in healthcare, engineering, and finance, where censored observations pose significant challenges. While traditional methods like the Beran estimator offer nonparametric…
There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…
Predicting the evolution of mortality rates plays a central role for life insurance and pension funds.Various stochastic frameworks have been developed to model mortality patterns taking into account the main stylized facts driving these…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend…
Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…
Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…
In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between…
The face is a rich source of information that can be utilized to infer a person's biological age, sex, phenotype, genetic defects, and health status. All of these factors are relevant for predicting an individual's remaining lifespan. In…
In this paper, we provide a comprehensive cross-country validation study of compositional mortality modeling and forecasting methods. Thus, we consider two one-to-one transformations: the cumulative distribution function and the centered…