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We introduce a novel adaptive Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) methodology for efficient construction of surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward model evaluations. An adaptive design strategy focuses on…
The Geometrically Intrinsic Nonlinear Recursive Filter, or GI Filter, is designed to estimate an arbitrary continuous-time Markov diffusion process X subject to nonlinear discrete-time observations. The GI Filter is fundamentally different…
Estimating the state of a dynamical system from a series of noise-corrupted observations is fundamental in many areas of science and engineering. The most well-known method, the Kalman smoother (and the related Kalman filter), relies on…
Foundations of a new projection-based model reduction approach for convection dominated nonlinear fluid flows are summarized. In this method the evolution of the flow is approximated in the Lagrangian frame of reference. Global basis…
This paper presents a new filter for state-space models based on Bellman's dynamic-programming principle, allowing for nonlinearity, non-Gaussianity and degeneracy in the observation and/or state-transition equations. The resulting Bellman…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are versatile tools that have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear estimation problems in machine learning, but that are rarely used in signal processing. In this tutorial, we present GPs for regression as…
Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) offer a principled framework for learning and inference in nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty quantification. However, existing GPSSMs are limited by the use of multiple independent…
We present a non-intrusive gradient and a non-intrusive BFGS algorithm for parameter estimation problems in non-stationary elasticity. To avoid multiple (and potentially expensive) solutions of the underlying partial differential equation…
Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible, uncertainty-aware framework for modeling complex signals, but scale cubically with data, assume static targets, and are brittle to outliers, limiting their applicability in large-scale problems…
Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are widely used in statistics and machine learning. Bayesian inference in non-conjugate LGMs is difficult due to intractable integrals involving the Gaussian prior and non-conjugate likelihoods. Algorithms…
This paper deals with state estimation of stochastic models with linear state dynamics, continuous or discrete in time. The emphasis is laid on a numerical solution to the state prediction by the time-update step of the grid-point-based…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
We propose a novel approach to input design for identification of nonlinear state space models. The optimal input sequence is obtained by maximizing a scalar cost function of the Fisher information matrix. Since the Fisher information…
A gauge independent method of obtaining the reduced space of constrained dynamical systems is discussed in a purely lagrangian formalism. Implications of gauge fixing are also considered.
We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement…
For complex nonlinear systems, it is challenging to design algorithms that are fast, scalable, and give an accurate approximation of the stability region. This paper proposes a sampling-based approach to address these challenges. By…
Gaussian process models are flexible, Bayesian non-parametric approaches to regression. Properties of multivariate Gaussians mean that they can be combined linearly in the manner of additive models and via a link function (like in…
Lagrangian Neural Networks (LNNs) are a powerful tool for addressing physical systems, particularly those governed by conservation laws. LNNs can parametrize the Lagrangian of a system to predict trajectories with nearly conserved energy.…
In applications of Gaussian processes where quantification of uncertainty is of primary interest, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over covariance parameters. This paper proposes an adaptation of the…
Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail…