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Chance constraints provide a principled framework to mitigate the risk of high-impact extreme events by modifying the controllable properties of a system. The low probability and rare occurrence of such events, however, impose severe…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-11 Shanyin Tong , Anirudh Subramanyam , Vishwas Rao

We propose a distributionally robust logistic regression model with an unfairness penalty that prevents discrimination with respect to sensitive attributes such as gender or ethnicity. This model is equivalent to a tractable convex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-21 Bahar Taskesen , Viet Anh Nguyen , Daniel Kuhn , Jose Blanchet

The problem of modeling the relationship between univariate distributions and one or more explanatory variables has found increasing interest. Traditional functional data methods cannot be applied directly to distributional data because of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Yidong Zhou , Hans-Georg Müller

We study a class of distributionally robust games where agents are allowed to heterogeneously choose their risk aversion with respect to distributional shifts of the uncertainty. In our formulation, heterogeneous Wasserstein ball…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Zifan Wang , Georgios Pantazis , Sergio Grammatico , Michael M. Zavlanos , Karl H. Johansson

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) provides a framework for decision-making under distributional uncertainty, yet its effectiveness can be compromised by outliers in the training data. This paper introduces a principled approach to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Shuyao Li , Ilias Diakonikolas , Jelena Diakonikolas

We propose a relative entropy gradient sampler (REGS) for sampling from unnormalized distributions. REGS is a particle method that seeks a sequence of simple nonlinear transforms iteratively pushing the initial samples from a reference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-07 Xingdong Feng , Yuan Gao , Jian Huang , Yuling Jiao , Xu Liu

Wasserstein \textbf{D}istributionally \textbf{R}obust \textbf{O}ptimization (DRO) is concerned with finding decisions that perform well on data that are drawn from the worst-case probability distribution within a Wasserstein ball centered…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Jiajin Li , Caihua Chen , Anthony Man-Cho So

We establish sharp upper and lower bounds for distortion risk metrics under distributional uncertainty. The uncertainty sets are characterized by four key features of the underlying distribution: mean, variance, unimodality, and Wasserstein…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-13 Peng Liu , Steven Vanduffel , Yi Xia

Evaluating rare-event forecasts is challenging because standard metrics collapse as event prevalence declines. Measures such as F1-score, AUPRC, MCC, and accuracy induce degenerate thresholds -- converging to zero or one -- and their values…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Sotirios D. Nikolopoulos

Limiting failures of machine learning systems is of paramount importance for safety-critical applications. In order to improve the robustness of machine learning systems, Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) has been proposed as a…

We propose and analyze a generalized splitting method to sample approximately from a distribution conditional on the occurrence of a rare event. This has important applications in a variety of contexts in operations research, engineering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-10 Zdravko I. Botev , Pierre L'Ecuyer

Rare events are events that are expected to occur infrequently, or more technically, those that have low probabilities (say, order of $10^{-3}$ or less) of occurring according to a probability model. In the context of uncertainty…

Computation · Statistics 2015-08-21 James L. Beck , Konstantin M. Zuev

We present a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) approach to estimate a robustified regression plane in a linear regression setting, when the observed samples are potentially contaminated with adversarially corrupted outliers. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-14 Ruidi Chen , Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis

We revisit Merton's continuous-time portfolio selection through a data-driven, distributionally robust lens. Our aim is to tap the benefits of frequent trading over short horizons while acknowledging that drift is hard to pin down, whereas…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Jose Blanchet , Jiayi Cheng , Hao Liu , Yang Liu

As the complexity of modern control systems increases, it becomes challenging to derive an accurate model of the uncertainty that affects their dynamics. Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) provides a powerful framework…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-09 Riccardo Cescon , Andrea Martin , Giancarlo Ferrari-Trecate

We consider the problem of analyzing the probabilistic performance of first-order methods when solving convex optimization problems drawn from an unknown distribution only accessible through samples. By combining performance estimation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-11 Jisun Park , Vinit Ranjan , Bartolomeo Stellato

In behavioral finance, aversion affects investors' judgment of future uncertainty when profit and loss occur. Considering investors' aversion to loss and risk, and the ambiguous uncertainty characterizing asset returns, we construct a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-05-06 Xin Zhang

In this paper, we propose a distributionally robust safety verification method for Markov decision processes where only an ambiguous transition kernel is available instead of the precise transition kernel. We define the ambiguity set around…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-27 Abhijit Mazumdar , Yuting Hou , Rafal Wisniewski

This paper studies adaptive distributionally robust dispatch (DRD) of the multi-energy microgrid under supply and demand uncertainties. A Wasserstein ambiguity set is constructed to support data-driven decision-making. By fully leveraging…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-15 Xunhang Sun , Xiaoyu Cao , Bo Zeng , Miaomiao Li , Xiaohong Guan , Tamer Başar

The Wasserstein distance is a metric on a space of probability measures that has seen a surge of applications in statistics, machine learning, and applied mathematics. However, statistical aspects of Wasserstein distances are bottlenecked…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-02 Ziv Goldfeld , Kengo Kato , Sloan Nietert , Gabriel Rioux