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The paper presents a new efficient and robust method for rare event probability estimation for computational models of an engineering product or a process returning categorical information only, for example, either success or failure. For…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Miroslav Vořechovský

We refer to recent inference methodology and formulate a framework for solving the distributionally robust optimization problem, where the true probability measure is inside a Wasserstein ball around the empirical measure and the radius of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-28 Xin Hai , Kihun Nam

We propose a distributionally robust approach to learning hyperparameters for first-order methods in convex optimization. Given a dataset of problem instances, we minimize a Wasserstein distributionally robust version of the performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Vinit Ranjan , Jisun Park , Bartolomeo Stellato

Robust estimation for modern portfolio selection on a large set of assets becomes more important due to large deviation of empirical inference on big data. We propose a distributionally robust methodology for high-dimensional mean-variance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-12 Ruike Wu , Yanrong Yang , Han Lin Shang , Huanjun Zhu

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for the simulation of rare events when the underlying dynamics is given by a diffusion. The scheme is based on a Gibbs variational principle that is used to determine the optimal (i.e.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-24 Carsten Hartmann , Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Lorenz Richter

The robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial importance in making well-informed decisions. In this paper, we quantify, for the class of distortion risk measures with…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-14 Carole Bernard , Silvana M. Pesenti , Steven Vanduffel

This paper studies a class of multiagent stochastic optimization problems where the objective is to minimize the expected value of a function which depends on a random variable. The probability distribution of the random variable is unknown…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-12-18 Ashish Cherukuri , Jorge Cortes

Deep neural networks are known to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks (AA). For an image recognition task, this means that a small perturbation of the original can result in the image being misclassified. Design of such attacks as well as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Xingjian Bai , Guangyi He , Yifan Jiang , Jan Obloj

Statistical learning under distribution shift is challenging when neither prior knowledge nor fully accessible data from the target distribution is available. Distributionally robust learning (DRL) aims to control the worst-case statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-19 Yu Gui , Rina Foygel Barber , Cong Ma

Conditional distribution is a fundamental quantity for describing the relationship between a response and a predictor. We propose a Wasserstein generative approach to learning a conditional distribution. The proposed approach uses a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-21 Shiao Liu , Xingyu Zhou , Yuling Jiao , Jian Huang

Deep neural networks achieve superior performance in semantic segmentation, but are limited to a predefined set of classes, which leads to failures when they encounter unknown objects in open-world scenarios. Recognizing and segmenting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Arnold Brosch , Abdelrahman Eldesokey , Michael Felsberg , Kira Maag

We consider a class of stochastic interdiction games between an upper-level decision-maker (the leader) and a lower-level decision-maker (the follower), where uncertainty lies in the follower's objective function coefficients. Specifically,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Sergey S. Ketkov , Oleg A. Prokopyev

Despite the growing prevalence of artificial neural networks in real-world applications, their vulnerability to adversarial attacks remains a significant concern, which motivates us to investigate the robustness of machine learning models.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Jie Wang , Rui Gao , Yao Xie

Problem definition: A key challenge in supervised learning is data scarcity, which can cause prediction models to overfit to the training data and perform poorly out of sample. A contemporary approach to combat overfitting is offered by…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-10 Reza Belbasi , Aras Selvi , Wolfram Wiesemann

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) has enabled to prove the equivalence between robustness and regularization in classification and regression, thus providing an analytical reason why regularization generalizes well in statistical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Esther Derman , Shie Mannor

We propose a new minimum-distance estimator for linear random coefficient models. This estimator integrates the recently advanced sliced Wasserstein distance with the nearest neighbor methods, both of which enhance computational efficiency.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Keunwoo Lim , Ting Ye , Fang Han

In this paper we develop a methodology that we call split sampling methods to estimate high dimensional expectations and rare event probabilities. Split sampling uses an auxiliary variable MCMC simulation and expresses the expectation of…

Computation · Statistics 2013-11-04 John R. Birge , Changgee Chang , Nicholas G. Polson

We develop Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) formulations for Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) and Multiclass Logistic Regression (MLG) when both the covariates and responses/labels may be contaminated by outliers. The DRO…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-12 Ruidi Chen , Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis

Flexible Bayesian models are typically constructed using limits of large parametric models with a multitude of parameters that are often uninterpretable. In this article, we offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Abhisek Chakraborty , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

Safe operation of autonomous systems requires robustness to both model uncertainty and uncertainty in the environment. We propose DRP-$\mathcal{L}_1$AC, a hierarchical framework for stochastic nonlinear systems that integrates…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-24 Astghik Hakobyan , Amaras Nazarians , Aditya Gahlawat , Naira Hovakimyan , Ilya Kolmanovsky
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