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This paper presents a novel one-factor stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous volatility of the asset log-return is a diffusion with a quadratic drift and a linear dispersion function. The instantaneous volatility mean reverts…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-21 Peter Carr , Sander Willems

We consider a one-dimensional simple random walk surviving among a field of static soft traps : each time it meets a trap the walk is killed with probability 1--e --$\beta$ , where $\beta$ is a positive and fixed parameter. The positions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Julien Poisat , François Simenhaus

Gradually Truncated Log-normal distribution - Size distribution of firms Abstract Many natural and economical phenomena are described through power law or log- normal distributions. In these cases, probability decreases very slowly with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Hari M. Gupta , Jose R. Campanha

We consider stochastic processes where randomly chosen particles with positive quantities x, y (> 0) interact and exchange the quantities asymmetrically by the rule x' = c{(1-a) x + b y}, y' = d{a x + (1-b) y} (x \ge y), where (0 \le) a, b…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Akihiro Fujihara , Toshiya Ohtsuki , Hiroshi Yamamoto

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Anja Janssen , Holger Drees

We study a recently introduced ladder model which undergoes a transition between an active and an infinitely degenerate absorbing phase. In some cases the critical behaviour of the model is the same as that of the branching annihilating…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 A. Lipowski , M. Droz

We derive the exact solution of a one-dimensional Markov functional model with log-normally distributed interest rates in discrete time. The model is shown to have two distinct limiting states, corresponding to small and asymptotically…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-19 Dan Pirjol

We consider the biased random walk on a critical Galton-Watson tree conditioned to survive, and confirm that this model with trapping belongs to the same universality class as certain one-dimensional trapping models with slowly-varying…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-03-20 David A. Croydon , Alexander Fribergh , Takashi Kumagai

We consider a random walk on a supercritical Galton-Watson tree with leaves, where the transition probabilities of the walk are determined by biases that are randomly assigned to the edges of the tree. The biases are chosen independently on…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-03 Alan Hammond

The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-10-04 Alvaro Corral , Francesc Font-Clos

Let $\left\{ Z_{n},n=0,1,2,...\right\} $ be a critical branching process in random environment and let $\left\{ S_{n},n=0,1,2,...\right\} $ be its associated random walk. It is known that if the increments of this random walk belong…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-29 Vladimir Vatutin , Elena Dyakonova

When planning a clinical trial for a time-to-event endpoint, we require an estimated effect size and need to consider the type of effect. Usually, an effect of proportional hazards is assumed with the hazard ratio as the corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Moritz Fabian Danzer , Ina Dormuth

We study the phase transition of dynamical herd behaviors for the yen-dollar exchange rate in the Japanese financial market. It is obtained that the probability distribution of returns satisfies the power-law behavior with three different…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Kyungsik Kim , Seong-Min Yoon

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jean-Francois Muzy , Emmanuel Bacry , Alexey Kozhemyak

The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-12 Guannan Zhao , Mark McDonald , Dan Fenn , Stacy Williams , Neil F. Johnson

In this paper we study random linear systems with $k$ variables per equation over the finite field GF(2), or equivalently $k$-XOR-CNF formulas. In a previous paper Creignou and Daud\'e proved that the phase transition for the consistency…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Nadia Creignou , Herve Daude , Olivier Dubois

Several phase transitions for excited random walks on the integers are known to be characterized by a certain drift parameter delta. For recurrence/transience the critical threshold is |delta|=1, for ballisticity it is |delta|=2 and for…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-07-26 Elena Kosygina , Martin P. W. Zerner

We consider a branching random walk initiated by a single particle at location 0 in which particles alternately reproduce according to the law of a Galton-Watson process and disperse according to the law of a driftless random walk on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-31 Steven P. Lalley , Yuan Shao

Let $\left\{ S_{n},n\geq 0\right\} $ be a random walk whose increment distribution belongs without centering to the domain of attraction of an $% \alpha $-stable law, i.e., there are some scaling constants $a_{n}$ such that the sequence…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-19 Congzao Dong , Elena Dyakonova , Vladimir Vatutin

In the present paper, we characterize the behavior of supercritical branching processes in random environment with linear fractional offspring distributions, conditioned on having small, but positive values at some large generation. As it…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-20 Christian Böinghoff