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We study rationally inattentive echo chambers, where players allocate limited attention to biased primary sources and to other players as secondary sources to acquire information about an uncertain state. The resulting Poisson attention…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-03 Lin Hu , Anqi Li , Xu Tan

Given a sequence of random variables ${\bf X}=X_1,X_2,\ldots$ suppose the aim is to maximize one's return by picking a `favorable' $X_i$. Obviously, the expected payoff crucially depends on the information at hand. An optimally informed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-02 Uwe Saint-Mont

A Bayesian agent experiences gain-loss utility each period over changes in belief about future consumption ("news utility"), with diminishing sensitivity over the magnitude of news. Diminishing sensitivity induces a preference over news…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-01-18 Jetlir Duraj , Kevin He

We study expert advice with career concerns and continuous private signals. The principal always implements the safe option, and implements the risky option with a probability increasing in the expert's reputation; outcomes, when realized,…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-13 Georgy Lukyanov , Anna Vlasova

Persistent inequalities in political knowledge are a central concern in political communication. We organize the mechanisms underlying the knowledge-gap literature by distinguishing between individual preconditions, structural features of…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Roberto Ulloa , Tiedemann Leonard , Peter Selb , Celina Kacperski

This paper studies how the possibility of strategic misreporting shapes endogenous communication networks. Agents observe noisy private signals about a common state, form costly communication links, exchange private messages with their…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-08 Paolo Pin

In the setting where a group of agents is asked a single subjective multi-choice question (e.g. which one do you prefer? cat or dog?), we are interested in evaluating the quality of the collected feedback. However, the collected statistics…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-02-25 Jiale Chen , Yuqing Kong , Yuxuan Lu

We consider two-alternative elections where voters' preferences depend on a state variable that is not directly observable. Each voter receives a private signal that is correlated to the state variable. Voters may be "contingent" with…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-15 Grant Schoenebeck , Biaoshuai Tao

The problem of peer prediction is to elicit information from agents in settings without any objective ground truth against which to score reports. Peer prediction mechanisms seek to exploit correlations between signals to align incentives…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-06-20 Victor Shnayder , Arpit Agarwal , Rafael Frongillo , David C. Parkes

We show that it can be suboptimal for Bayesian decision-making agents employing social learning to use correct prior probabilities as their initial beliefs. We consider sequential Bayesian binary hypothesis testing where each individual…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Joong Bum Rhim , Vivek K Goyal

This paper studies a dynamic information acquisition model with payoff externalities. Two players can acquire costly information about an unknown state before taking a safe or risky action. Both information and the action taken are private.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-07-08 Guo Bai

In this work we study the problem of inferring a discrete probability distribution using both expert knowledge and empirical data. This is an important issue for many applications where the scarcity of data prevents a purely empirical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-08 Rémi Besson , Erwan Le Pennec , Stéphanie Allassonnière

We examine receiver-optimal mechanisms for aggregating information divided across many biased senders. Each sender privately observes an unconditionally independent signal about an unknown state, so no sender can verify another's report. A…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-08-05 James Best , Daniel Quigley , Maryam Saeedi , Ali Shourideh

We study how social image concerns shape information sharing among peers. Individuals receive a signal about a binary state of the world characterized by both a direction and a veracity status. While the direction is freely observable,…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-11 Dana Sisak , Philipp Denter

We examine how misinformation spreads in social networks composed of individuals with long-term offline relationships. Especially, we focus on why misinformation persists and diffuses despite being recognized by most as false. In our…

General Economics · Economics 2025-10-13 Shuige Liu

Identifying how much a model ${\widehat{p}}_{\theta}(Y|X)$ knows about the stochastic real-world process $p(Y|X)$ it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Daniel D. Johnson , Daniel Tarlow , David Duvenaud , Chris J. Maddison

We develop a model of social learning from overabundant information: Short-lived agents sequentially choose from a large set of (flexibly correlated) information sources for prediction of an unknown state. Signal realizations are public. We…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2018-06-20 Annie Liang , Xiaosheng Mu

When people reason about cause and effect, they often consider many competing "what if" scenarios before deciding which explanation fits best. Analogously, advanced language models capable of causal inference can consider multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Finn G. Vamosi , Nils D. Forkert

People convey information extremely effectively through spoken interaction using multiple channels of information transmission: the lexical channel of what is said, and the non-lexical channel of how it is said. We propose studying human…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Sarenne Wallbridge , Peter Bell , Catherine Lai

A sender with state-independent preferences (i.e., transparent motives) privately observes a signal about the state of the world before sending a message to a receiver, who subsequently takes an action. Regardless of whether the receiver…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-03 Mark Whitmeyer