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This paper investigates the robustness of futility analyses in clinical trials when interim analysis population deviates from the target population. We demonstrate how population shifts can distort early stopping decisions and propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-31 Rui Jin , Cai Wu , Peter Mesenbrink

Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This paper develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzing quasi-experimental settings in the social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Ashesh Rambachan , Jonathan Roth

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost every field. Identifying causes of effects in specific events is likewise essential for accurate decision making. However, such estimates invoke counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott Mueller , Ang Li , Judea Pearl

We study the problem of assigning indivisible objects to agents where each is to receive at most one. To ensure fairness in the absence of monetary compensation, we consider random assignments. Random Priority, also known as Random Serial…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-06-24 Christian Basteck

Randomized smoothing is a technique for providing provable robustness guarantees against adversarial attacks while making minimal assumptions about a classifier. This method relies on taking a majority vote of any base classifier over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Ambar Pal , Jeremias Sulam

In this paper, we establish sufficient conditions for identifying treatment effects on continuous outcomes in endogenous and multi-valued discrete treatment settings with unobserved heterogeneity. We employ the monotonicity assumption for…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-27 Koki Fusejima

While attractive from a theoretical perspective, finely stratified experiments such as paired designs suffer from certain analytical limitations not present in block-randomized experiments with multiple treated and control individuals in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-21 Colin B. Fogarty

Economic choices are often stochastic: the same person may make a different choice when facing the same alternatives repeatedly. Standard models assume that the degree of randomness reflects the size of utility differences, but choice…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-05 Shuhua Si

Interim analyses are vital in clinical trials for early decision-making. While frequentist implications are well-established, the consequences of repeated Bayesian interim monitoring for efficacy, specifically regarding multiplicity, remain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Suyu Liu , Beibei Guo , Laura Thompson , Lei Nie , Ying Yuan

In the last months, due to the emergency of Covid-19, questions related to the fact of belonging or not to a particular class of individuals (`infected or not infected'), after being tagged as `positive' or `negative' by a test, have never…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-23 Giulio D'Agostini , Alfredo Esposito

We consider an experimental design setting in which units are assigned to treatment after being sampled sequentially from an infinite population. We derive asymptotic efficiency bounds that apply to data from any experiment that assigns…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Timothy B. Armstrong

This article considers causal inference for treatment contrasts from a randomized experiment using potential outcomes in a finite population setting. Adopting a Neymanian repeated sampling approach that integrates such causal inference with…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-17 Rahul Mukerjee , Tirthankar Dasgupta , Donald B. Rubin

Hypothesis test plays a key role in uncertain statistics based on uncertain measure. This paper extends the parametric hypothesis of a single uncertain population to multiple cases, thereby addressing a broader range of scenarios. First, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-03 Fan Zhang , Zhiming Li

Recently, the notions of subjective constraint monotonicity, epistemic splitting, and foundedness have been introduced for epistemic logic programs, with the aim to use them as main criteria respectively intuitions to compare different…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Yi-Dong Shen , Thomas Eiter

We provide a reason for Bayesian updating, in the Bernoulli case, even when it is assumed that observations are independent and identically distributed with a fixed but unknown parameter $\theta_0$. The motivation relies on the use of loss…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-06-08 Pier Giovanni Bissiri , Stephen G. Walker

In some inferential statistical methods, such as tests and confidence intervals, it is important to describe the stochastic behavior of statistical functionals, aside from their large sample properties. We study such behavior in terms of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Tommaso Lando , Idir Arab , Paulo Eduardo Oliveira

This paper introduces an overidentification test of two alternative assumptions to identify the average treatment effect on the treated in a two-period panel data setting: unconfoundedness and common trends. Under the unconfoundedness…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-25 Martin Huber , Eva-Maria Oeß

The monotonic dependence of the outputs of a neural network on some of its inputs is a crucial inductive bias in many scenarios where domain knowledge dictates such behavior. This is especially important for interpretability and fairness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-17 Ouail Kitouni , Niklas Nolte , Michael Williams

In the modern knowledge economy, success demands sustained focus and high cognitive performance. Research suggests that human cognition is linked to a finite resource, and upon its depletion, cognitive functions such as self-control and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Nathan O. Hodas , Jacob Hunter , Stephen J. Young , Kristina Lerman

Acquisition of data is a difficult task in many applications of machine learning, and it is only natural that one hopes and expects the population risk to decrease (better performance) monotonically with increasing data points. It turns…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Zakaria Mhammedi
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