Related papers: Explainable time-series forecasting with sampling-…

Machine and deep learning survival models demonstrate similar or even improved time-to-event prediction capabilities compared to classical statistical learning methods yet are too complex to be interpreted by humans. Several model-agnostic…

In eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), instance-based explanations for time series have gained increasing attention due to their potential for actionable and interpretable insights in domains such as healthcare. Addressing the…

When applied to Image-to-text models, interpretability methods often provide token-by-token explanations namely, they compute a visual explanation for each token of the generated sequence. Those explanations are expensive to compute and…

To the naked eye, stock prices are considered chaotic, dynamic, and unpredictable. Indeed, it is one of the most difficult forecasting tasks that hundreds of millions of retail traders and professional traders around the world try to do…

Multivariate long-term time series forecasting is of great application across many domains, such as energy consumption and weather forecasting. With the development of transformer-based methods, the performance of multivariate long-term…

Periodicity is a fundamental characteristic of time series data and has long played a central role in forecasting. Recent deep learning methods strengthen the exploitation of periodicity by treating patches as basic tokens, thereby…

Position representation is crucial for building position-aware representations in Transformers. Existing position representations suffer from a lack of generalization to test data with unseen lengths or high computational cost. We…

Changes in input distribution can induce shifts in the average predictions of machine learning models. Such prediction shifts may impact downstream business outcomes (e.g. a bank's loan approval rate), so understanding their causes can be…

Explainable AI (XAI) is critical for ensuring transparency, accountability, and trust in machine learning systems as black-box models are increasingly deployed within high-stakes domains. Among XAI methods, Shapley values are widely used…

Transformers have been actively studied for time-series forecasting in recent years. While often showing promising results in various scenarios, traditional Transformers are not designed to fully exploit the characteristics of time-series…

Temporal set prediction involves forecasting the elements that will appear in the next set, given a sequence of prior sets, each containing a variable number of elements. Existing methods often rely on intricate architectures with…

Shapley Values (SV) are widely used in explainable AI, but their estimation and interpretation can be challenging, leading to inaccurate inferences and explanations. As a starting point, we remind an invariance principle for SV and derive…

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has become an increasingly important area of research, particularly as machine learning models are deployed in high-stakes domains. Among various XAI approaches, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations)…

We present a conformal prediction method for time series using the Transformer architecture to capture long-memory and long-range dependencies. Specifically, we use the Transformer decoder as a conditional quantile estimator to predict the…

Time series forecasting is prevalent in extensive real-world applications, such as financial analysis and energy planning. Previous studies primarily focus on time series modality, endeavoring to capture the intricate variations and…

Shapley values have become one of the most popular feature attribution explanation methods. However, most prior work has focused on post-hoc Shapley explanations, which can be computationally demanding due to its exponential time complexity…

In recent years, numerous Transformer-based models have been applied to long-term time-series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. However, recent studies with linear models have questioned their effectiveness, demonstrating that simple linear layers…

Although Transformers excel in natural language processing, their extension to time series forecasting remains challenging due to insufficient consideration of the differences between textual and temporal modalities. In this paper, we…

Score-based explainable machine-learning techniques are often used to understand the logic behind black-box models. However, such explanation techniques are often computationally expensive, which limits their application in time-critical…

Irregularly sampled multivariate time series are ubiquitous in various fields, particularly in healthcare, and exhibit two key characteristics: intra-series irregularity and inter-series discrepancy. Intra-series irregularity refers to the…