Related papers: A neural network-based observation operator for we…
We introduce a transformer-based neural network to generate high-resolution (3km) synthetic radar reflectivity fields at scale from geostationary satellite imagery. This work aims to enhance short-term convective-scale forecasts of…
Satellite observations play a critical role in numerical weather prediction where they are assimilated through an observation operator that maps model states to radiances. In the traditional Ensemble Kalman Filter, these observations are…
The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between…
In numerical weather prediction (NWP), a large number of observations are used to create initial conditions for weather forecasting through a process known as data assimilation. An assessment of the value of these observations for NWP can…
Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear…
The integration of observational data into numerical models, known as data assimilation (DA), is fundamental for making Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) possible, with breathtaking success over the past 60 years (Bauer et al. 2015).…
Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable. We reformulate wind…
Errors in the representation of clouds in convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models can be introduced by different sources. These can be the forcing and boundary conditions, the representation of orography, the accuracy of…
Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) is a cornerstone of numerical weather prediction, but its cost function is difficult to optimize and computationally intensive. We propose a neural field-based reformulation in which…
Accurately predicting short-term precipitation is critical for weather-sensitive applications such as disaster management, aviation, and urban planning. Traditional numerical weather prediction can be computationally intensive at high…
This work addresses the challenge of short-term precipitation forecasting by applying Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) neural networks to weather radar data from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). The…
Data assimilation of atmospheric observations traditionally relies on variational and Kalman filter methods. Here, an alternative neural-network data assimilation (NNDA) with variational autoencoder (VAE) is proposed. The three-dimensional…
This paper investigates the impact of observations on atmospheric state estimation in weather forecasting systems using graph neural networks (GNNs) and explainability methods. We integrate observation and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)…
Data-driven machine learning (ML) models are reshaping weather forecasting and have shown the potential to accelerate and surpass traditional physics-based approaches, leading to a second revolution in the field after data assimilation.…
Dynamic downscaling typically involves using numerical weather prediction (NWP) solvers to refine coarse data to higher spatial resolutions. Data-driven models such as FourCastNet have emerged as a promising alternative to the traditional…
Automotive perception systems are obligated to meet high requirements. While optical sensors such as Camera and Lidar struggle in adverse weather conditions, Radar provides a more robust perception performance, effectively penetrating fog,…
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models represent sub-grid processes using parameterizations, which are often complex and a major source of uncertainty in weather forecasting. In this work, we devise a simple machine learning (ML)…
This paper addresses the impact of assimilating data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) during two cases of severe weather. Data from the ENTLN serve as a substitute for those from the upcoming launch of the GOES…
Deep neural networks offer an alternative paradigm for modeling weather conditions. The ability of neural models to make a prediction in less than a second once the data is available and to do so with very high temporal and spatial…
Data assimilation (DA) is integrated with machine learning in order to perform entirely data-driven online state estimation. To achieve this, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are implemented as surrogate models to replace key components of…