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Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

In this short note, we find an equivalent combinatorial condition only involving finite sums under which a centered Gaussian random vector with multinomial covariance matrix satisfies the Gaussian product inequality (GPI) conjecture. These…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-24 Frédéric Ouimet

A moderate deviation principle for functionals, with at most quadratic growth, of moving average processes is established. The main assumptions on the moving average process are a Logarithmic Sobolev inequality for the driving random…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Hacene Djellout , Arnaud Guillin , Liming Wu

Modern technology often generates data with complex structures in which both response and explanatory variables are matrix-valued. Existing methods in the literature are able to tackle matrix-valued predictors but are rather limited for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-01 Shanshan Ding , R. Dennis Cook

Slepian and Sudakov-Fernique type inequalities, which compare expectations of maxima of Gaussian random vectors under certain restrictions on the covariance matrices, play an important role in probability theory, especially in empirical…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-15 Victor Chernozhukov , Denis Chetverikov , Kengo Kato

We consider particle systems with mean-field interactions whose distribution is invariant by translations. Under the assumption that the system seen from its centre of mass be reversible with respect to a Gibbs measure, we establish large…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-25 Julien Reygner

Quantitative multivariate central limit theorems for general functionals of possibly non-symmetric and non-homogeneous infinite Rademacher sequences are proved by combining discrete Malliavin calculus with the smart path method for normal…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-06 Kai Krokowski , Christoph Thaele

We derive large- and moderate-deviation results in random networks given as planar directed navigations on homogeneous Poisson point processes. In this non-Markovian routing scheme, starting from the origin, at each consecutive step a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-13 Partha Pratim Ghosh , Benedikt Jahnel , Sanjoy Kumar Jhawar

We develop our previous works concerning the identification of the collection of significant factors determining some, in general, non-binary random response variable. Such identification is important, e.g., in biological and medical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-05 Alexander V. Bulinski , Alexander S. Rakitko

The large deviation principle is established for the distributions of a class of generalized stochastic porous media equations for both small noise and short time.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Michael Röckner , Feng-Yu Wang , Liming Wu

We establish a large deviation theorem for the empirical spectral distribution of random covariance matrices whose entries are independent random variables with mean 0, variance 1 and having controlled forth moments. Some new properties of…

Complex Variables · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Tien-Cuong Dinh , Duc-Viet Vu

The work of Gantert, Kim, and Ramanan [Large deviations for random projections of $\ell^p$ balls, Ann. Probab. 45 (6B), 2017] has initiated and inspired a new direction of research in the asymptotic theory of geometric functional analysis.…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-08 Joscha Prochno

This paper reviews generalized Pareto copulas (GPC), which turn out to be a key to multivariate extreme value theory. Any GPC can be represented in an easy analytic way using a particular type of norm on $\mathbb{R}^d$, called $D$-norm. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-26 Michael Falk , Simone Padoan , Florian Wisheckel

A Cram\'er-type moderate deviation theorem quantifies the relative error of the tail probability approximation. It provides theoretical justification when the limiting tail probability can be used to estimate the tail probability under…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-28 Qi-Man Shao , Mengchen Zhang , Zhuo-Song Zhang

An estimate of the order of approximation in the central limit theorem for strictly stationary associated random variables with finite moments of order q > 2 is obtained. A moderate deviation result is also obtained. We have a refinement of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-19 M. Sreehari

We study the statistics of the number of real eigenvalues in the elliptic deformation of the real Ginibre ensemble. As the matrix dimension grows, the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem for the number of real eigenvalues are…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-26 Sung-Soo Byun , Jonas Jalowy , Yong-Woo Lee , Grégory Schehr

We establish noncommutative analogs of some well-known large deviation inequalities for noncommutative random variables. Firstly, for the noncommutative independent case, we characterize the uniformly exponential integrability of random…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Yong Jiao , Sijie Luo , Dejian Zhou

The Large Deviation Principle is established for stochastic models defined by past-dependent non linear recursions with small noise. In the Markov case we use the result to obtain an explicit expression for the asymptotics of exit time.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 F. Klebaner , R. Liptser

We use a new method via $p$-Wasserstein bounds to prove Cram\'er-type moderate deviations in (multivariate) normal approximations. In the classical setting that $W$ is a standardized sum of $n$ independent and identically distributed…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-27 Xiao Fang , Yuta Koike

Interest is in evaluating, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the expected value of a function with respect to a, possibly unnormalized, probability distribution. A general purpose variance reduction technique for the MCMC…

Computation · Statistics 2012-09-19 Antonietta Mira , Reza Solgi , Daniele Imparato