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The statistical modeling of discrete extremes has received less attention than their continuous counterparts in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) literature. One approach to the transition from continuous to discrete extremes is the modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Touqeer Ahmad , Carlo Gaetan , Philippe Naveau

Multi-task learning models using Gaussian processes (GP) have been developed and successfully applied in various applications. The main difficulty with this approach is the computational cost of inference using the union of examples from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-11-29 Yuyang Wang , Roni Khardon

Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-11 Alice Corbella , Anne M Presanis , Paul J Birrell , Daniela De Angelis

Over the last 30 years, extensive work has been devoted to developing central limit theory for partial sums of subordinated long memory linear time series. A much less studied problem, motivated by questions that are ubiquitous in extreme…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Ioan Scheffel , Marco Oesting , Gilles Stupfler

The estimation of categorical distributions under marginal constraints summarizing some sample from a population in the most-generalizable way is key for many machine-learning and data-driven approaches. We provide a parameter-agnostic…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2023-11-17 Orestis Loukas , Ho Ryun Chung

We make use of the empirical process theory to approximate the adapted Hill estimator, for censored data, in terms of Gaussian processes. Then, we derive its asymptotic normality, only under the usual second-order condition of regular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Brahim Brahimi , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir

We define two new classes of stochastic processes, called tempered fractional L\'{e}vy process of the first and second kinds (TFLP and TFLP $I\!I$, respectively). TFLP and TFLP $I\!I$ make up very broad finite-variance, generally…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-03 Benjamin Cooper Boniece , Gustavo Didier , Farzad Sabzikar

When using the finite element method (FEM) in inverse problems, its discretization error can produce parameter estimates that are inaccurate and overconfident. The Bayesian finite element method (BFEM) provides a probabilistic model for the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Anne Poot , Iuri Rocha , Pierre Kerfriden , Frans van der Meer

We present a systematic short time expansion for the generating function of the one point height probability distribution for the KPZ equation with droplet initial condition, which goes much beyond previous studies. The expansion is checked…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-11-21 Alexandre Krajenbrink , Pierre Le Doussal , Sylvain Prolhac

We provide a general theorem on the asymptotic behavior of stochastic processes that conform to a relaxed supermartingale condition. The distinguishing feature of our result is that it provides quantitative convergence guarantees at a much…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Morenikeji Neri , Nicholas Pischke , Thomas Powell

Fractal and fractal-rate stochastic point processes (FSPPs and FRSPPs) provide useful models for describing a broad range of diverse phenomena, including electron transport in amorphous semiconductors, computer-network traffic, and…

We introduce functional adaptive shrinkage (FASH), an empirical Bayes method for joint analysis of observation units in which each unit estimates an effect function at several values of a continuous condition variable. The ideas in this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Ziang Zhang , Peter Carbonetto , Matthew Stephens

The natural world often follows a long-tailed data distribution where only a few classes account for most of the examples. This long-tail causes classifiers to overfit to the majority class. To mitigate this, prior solutions commonly adopt…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Rahul Duggal , Scott Freitas , Sunny Dhamnani , Duen Horng Chau , Jimeng Sun

In this work, we present a generalized methodology for analyzing the convergence of quasi-optimal Taylor and Legendre approximations, applicable to a wide class of parameterized elliptic PDEs with finite-dimensional deterministic and…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-08-11 Hoang Tran , Clayton G. Webster , Guannan Zhang

It was shown that when one disposes of a parametric information of the truncation distribution, the semiparametric estimator of the distribution function for truncated data (Wang, 1989) is more efficient than the nonparametric one. On the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-03 Saida Mancer , Abdelhakim Necir , Souad Benchaira

I report a new statistical distribution formulated to confront the infamous, long-standing, computational/modeling challenge presented by highly skewed and/or leptokurtic ("fat- or heavy-tailed") data. The distribution is straightforward,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-11-01 Lawrence R. Thorne

This paper introduces a loss-based generalized Bayesian methodology for high-dimensional robust regression with serially correlated errors and predictors. The proposed framework employs a novel scaled pseudo-Huber (SPH) loss function, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Saptarshi Chakraborty , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis

We introduce a graph-signal generalisation of Sample Entropy, denoted SampEn$_{G}$, to quantify irregularity of graph signals on a continuous state space, complementing existing methods on symbolic dynamics. Our approach replaces the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-23 Mei-San Maggie Lei , John Stewart Fabila Carrasco , Javier Escudero

Statistical inference problems arising within signal processing, data mining, and machine learning naturally give rise to hard combinatorial optimization problems. These problems become intractable when the dimensionality of the data is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-04-27 Adel Javanmard , Andrea Montanari , Federico Ricci-Tersenghi

We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Kwangho Kim