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The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

This paper introduces new empirical process tools for analyzing a broad class of statistical learning models under heavy-tailed noise and complex function classes. Our primary contribution is the derivation of two Dudley-type maximal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Yizhe Ding , Runze Li , Lingzhou Xue

This paper investigates the nonparametric estimation of the functional coefficients of the FBSDEs with random terminal time, including the local constant and local linear estimators. We provide complete two-dimensional asymptotics in both…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-24 Shaolin Ji , Chenyao Yu , Linlin Zhu

The recently proposed statistical finite element (statFEM) approach synthesises measurement data with finite element models and allows for making predictions about the unknown true system response. We provide a probabilistic error analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Toni Karvonen , Fehmi Cirak , Mark Girolami

In this paper we first provide several conditional limit theorems for L\'evy processes with negative drift and regularly varying tail. Then we apply them to study the asymptotic behavior of expectations of some exponential functionals of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-29 Wei Xu

Stretched exponential probability density functions (pdf), having the form of the exponential of minus a fractional power of the argument, are commonly found in turbulence and other areas. They can arise because of an underlying random…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-30 U. Frisch , D. Sornette

Trial-based economic evaluations are typically performed on cross-sectional variables, derived from the responses for only the completers in the study, using methods that ignore the complexities of utility and cost data (e.g. skewness and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-21 Andrea Gabrio , Michael J. Daniels , Gianluca Baio

Asymptotic equivalence theory developed in the literature so far are only for bounded loss functions. This limits the potential applications of the theory because many commonly used loss functions in statistical inference are unbounded. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-03 T. Tony Cai , Harrison H. Zhou

A test based on tapering is proposed for use in testing a global linear hypothesis under a functional linear model. The test statistic is constructed as a weighted sum of squared linear combinations of Fourier coefficients, a tapered…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-10-09 Dan J. Spitzner

The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-06-15 Jose Blanchet , Jingchen Liu

This paper studies Graphical SLOPE for precision matrix estimation, with emphasis on its ability to recover both sparsity and clusters of edges with equal or similar strength. In a fixed-dimensional regime, we establish that the root-$n$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-15 Ivan Hejný , Giovanni Bonaccolto , Philipp Kremer , Sandra Paterlini , Małgorzata Bogdan , Jonas Wallin

The fractional Poisson process (FPP) generalizes the standard Poisson process by replacing exponentially distributed return times with Mittag-Leffler distributed ones with an extra tail parameter, allowing for greater flexibility. The FPP…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-12 Merle Mendel , Roland Fried

Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) is widely used in empirical work in economics and other disciplines. As Gaussian approximations perform poorly in the presence of "small denominators," trimming is routinely employed as a regularization…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-05-28 Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

Confidence sequences are anytime-valid analogues of classical confidence intervals that do not suffer from multiplicity issues under optional continuation of the data collection. As in classical statistics, asymptotic confidence sequences…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Felix Gnettner , Claudia Kirch

Normalizing flows, a popular class of deep generative models, often fail to represent extreme phenomena observed in real-world processes. In particular, existing normalizing flow architectures struggle to model multivariate extremes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-04 Andrew McDonald , Pang-Ning Tan , Lifeng Luo

We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-02-05 Guang Cheng , Lan Zhou , Jianhua Z. Huang

Variational inference is a general framework to obtain approximations to the posterior distribution in a Bayesian context. In essence, variational inference entails an optimization over a given family of probability distributions to choose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Janis Keck

Regularized system identification is the major advance in system identification in the last decade. Although many promising results have been achieved, it is far from complete and there are still many key problems to be solved. One of them…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-05 Yue Ju , Biqiang Mu , Lennart Ljung , Tianshi Chen

In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-01 Wenyu Chen , Zhaokai Wang , Wooseok Ha , Rina Foygel Barber

Nonparametric estimation of the mean and covariance functions is ubiquitous in functional data analysis and local linear smoothing techniques are most frequently used. Zhang and Wang (2016) explored different types of asymptotic properties…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Shaojun Guo , Dong Li , Xinghao Qiao , Yizhu Wang
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