Related papers: Bounds for the Success Probability in the Odds The…

Stop-loss rules are often studied in the financial literature, but the stop-loss levels are seldom constructed systematically. In many papers, and indeed in practice as well, the level of the stops is too often set arbitrarily. Guided by…

Suppose $N$ independent Bernoulli trials are observed sequentially at random times of a mixed binomial process. The task is to maximise, by using a nonanticipating stopping strategy, the probability of stopping at the last success. We focus…

We give the proof of a tight lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable exceeds its expected value. The inequality plays an important role in a variety of contexts, including the analysis of relative deviation bounds in…

Robbins' problem of optimal stopping asks one to minimise the expected {\it rank} of observation chosen by some nonanticipating stopping rule. We settle a conjecture regarding the {\it value} of the stopped variable under the rule optimal…

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

A collection of $n$ random events is said to be $(n - 1)$-wise independent if any $n - 1$ events among them are mutually independent. We characterise all probability measures with respect to which $n$ random events are $(n - 1)$-wise…

The problem of stopping a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning point to maximise the expected value at the stopping time is studied. A few general properties, such as continuity and various bounds of the value function, are established.…

We consider the well-known problem of the computation of the (limiting) time-dependent performance characteristics of one-dimensional continuous-time birth and death processes on $\mathbb{Z}$ with time varying and possible state-dependent…

We consider the problem of guessing the realization of a random variable but under more general Tsallis' non-extensive entropic framework rather than the classical Maxwell-Boltzman-Gibbs-Shannon framework. We consider both the conditional…

In this work we consider optimal stopping problems with conditional convex risk measures called optimised certainty equivalents. Without assuming any kind of time-consistency for the underlying family of risk measures, we derive a novel…

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one event was a cause of another in a given scenario. Using structural-semantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show…

Known Bernstein-type upper bounds on the tail probabilities for sums of independent zero-mean sub-exponential random variables are improved in several ways at once. The new upper bounds have a certain optimality property.

We obtain the best possible upper bounds for the moments of a single order statistic from independent, non-negative random variables, in terms of the population mean. The main result covers the independent identically distributed case.…

We consider the optimal stopping problem for a Gauss-Markov process conditioned to adopt a prescribed terminal distribution. By applying a time-space transformation, we show it is equivalent to stopping a Brownian bridge pinned at a random…

This article is a survey of results concerning an inequality, which may be seen as a versatile tool to solve problems in the domain of Applied Probability. The inequality, which we call BRS-inequality, gives a convenient upper bound for the…

In this paper, lower bounds on the probability of a finite union of events are considered, i.e. $P\left(\bigcup_{i=1}^N A_i\right)$, in terms of the individual event probabilities $\{P(A_i), i=1,\ldots,N\}$ and the sums of the pairwise…

In a classical optimal stopping problem in continuous time, the agent can choose any stopping time without constraint. Dupuis and Wang (Optimal stopping with random intervention times, Advances in Applied Probability, 34, 141--157, 2002)…

We investigate an optimal stopping problem for the expected value of a discounted payoff on a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion under two constraints on the possible stopping times: only at exogenous random times and only during a…

We study the problem of computing the tightest upper and lower bounds on the probability that the sum of $n$ dependent Bernoulli random variables exceeds an integer $k$. Under knowledge of all pairs of bivariate distributions denoted by a…

The Bruss-Robertson inequality gives a bound on the maximal number of elements of a random sample whose sum is less than a specified value, and the extension of that inequality which is given here neither requires the independence of the…