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We obtain the first probabilistic proof of continuous differentiability of time-dependent optimal boundaries in optimal stopping problems. The underlying stochastic dynamics is a one-dimensional, time-inhomogeneous diffusion. The gain…
While useful probability bounds for $n$ pairwise independent Bernoulli random variables adding up to at least an integer $k$ have been proposed in the literature, none of these bounds are tight in general. In this paper, we provide several…
Consider the problem of maximizing the probability of stopping with one of the two highest values in a Bernoulli random walk with arbitrary parameter $p$ and finite time horizon $n$. Allaart \cite{Allaart} proved that the optimal strategy…
Inspired by recent work of P.-L. Lions on conditional optimal control, we introduce a problem of optimal stopping under bounded rationality: the objective is the expected payoff at the time of stopping, conditioned on another event. For…
A central problem in Binary Hypothesis Testing (BHT) is to determine the optimal tradeoff between the Type I error (referred to as false alarm) and Type II (referred to as miss) error. In this context, the exponential rate of convergence of…
This paper considers a distributionally robust chance constraint model with a general ambiguity set. We show that a sample based approximation of this model converges under suitable sufficient conditions. We also show that upper and lower…
We show how to compute lower bounds for the supremum Bayes error if the class-conditional distributions must satisfy moment constraints, where the supremum is with respect to the unknown class-conditional distributions. Our approach makes…
We study a problem when a solution to optimal stopping problem for one-dimensional diffusion will generate by threshold strategy. Namely, we give necessary and sufficient conditions under which an optimal stopping time can be specified as…
We consider a class of time-inhomogeneous optimal stopping problems and we provide sufficient conditions on the data of the problem that guarantee monotonicity of the optimal stopping boundary. In our setting, time-inhomogeneity stems not…
In the context of bounding probability of small deviation, there are limited general tools. However, such bounds have been widely applied in graph theory and inventory management. We introduce a common approach to substantially sharpen such…
We derive new upper and lower bounds for probabilities that $r$ or at least $r$ from $n$ events occur. These bounds can turn to equalities. The method is discussed as well. It works for measurable space and measures with sign, too. We also…
We obtain an optimal bound for a Gaussian approximation of a large class of vector-valued random processes. Our results provide a substantial generalization of earlier results that assume independence and/or stationarity. Based on the decay…
A central object in optimal stopping theory is the single-choice prophet inequality for independent, identically distributed random variables: Given a sequence of random variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ drawn independently from a distribution $F$,…
Sums of independent, bounded random variables concentrate around their expectation approximately as well a Gaussian of the same variance. Well known results of this form include the Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Chernoff inequalities and many…
We consider the problem of bounding large deviations for non-i.i.d. random variables that are allowed to have arbitrary dependencies. Previous works typically assumed a specific dependence structure, namely the existence of independent…
We consider a simple optimal probabilistic problem solving strategy that searches through potential solution candidates in a specific order. We are interested in what impact has interchanging the order of two solution candidates with…
We consider optimal stopping problems for a Brownian motion and a geometric Brownian motion with a "disorder", assuming that the moment of a disorder is uniformly distributed on a finite interval. Optimal stopping rules are found as the…
The bounds for absolute moments of order statistics are established. Let $X_1,\dots ,X_n$ be independent identically distributed real-valued random variables and let $X_{1:n}\le \dots \le X_{n:n}$ be the corresponding order statistics. The…
We analyze an optimal stopping problem with random maturity under a nonlinear expectation with respect to a weakly compact set of mutually singular probabilities $\mathcal{P}$. The maturity is specified as the hitting time to level $0$ of…
We solve the problem of optimal stopping of a Brownian motion subject to the constraint that the stopping time's distribution is a given measure consisting of finitely-many atoms. In particular, we show that this problem can be converted to…