English

On the optimal stopping of Gauss-Markov bridges with random pinning points

Probability 2025-05-26 v2 Applications

Abstract

We consider the optimal stopping problem for a Gauss-Markov process conditioned to adopt a prescribed terminal distribution. By applying a time-space transformation, we show it is equivalent to stopping a Brownian bridge pinned at a random endpoint with a time-dependent payoff. We prove that the optimal rule is the first entry into the stopping region, and establish that the value function is Lipschitz continuous on compacts via a coupling of terminal pinning points across different initial conditions. A comparison theorems then order value functions according to likelihood-ratio ordering of terminal densities, and when these densities have bounded support, we bound the optimal boundary by that of a Gauss-Markov bridge. Although the stopping boundary need not be the graph of a function in general, we provide sufficient conditions under which this property holds, and identify strongly log-concave terminal densities that guarantee this structure. Numerical experiments illustrate representative boundary shapes.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2505.03636,
  title  = {On the optimal stopping of Gauss-Markov bridges with random pinning points},
  author = {Abel Azze and Bernardo D'Auria},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.03636},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

18 pages, 2 figures