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Despite advances in open-domain dialogue systems, automatic evaluation of such systems is still a challenging problem. Traditional reference-based metrics such as BLEU are ineffective because there could be many valid responses for a given…
Forecasting revenues by aggregating analyst forecasts is a fundamental problem in financial research and practice. A key objective in this context is to improve the accuracy of the forecast by optimizing two performance metrics: the hit…
In soccer, contextual player performance metrics are invaluable to coaches. For example, the ability to perform under pressure during matches distinguishes the elite from the average. Appropriate pressure metric enables teams to assess…
When predicting future events, it is common to issue forecasts that are probabilistic, in the form of probability distributions over the range of possible outcomes. Such forecasts can be evaluated using proper scoring rules. Proper scoring…
Quantifying individual performance in the game of Cricket is critical for team selection in International matches. The number runs scored by batsmen and wickets taken by bowlers serves as a natural way of quantifying the performance of a…
Performative prediction characterizes environments where predictive models alter the very data distributions they aim to forecast, triggering complex feedback loops. While prior research treats single-agent and multi-agent performativity as…
Bill James' Pythagorean formula has for decades done an excellent job estimating a baseball team's winning percentage from very little data: if the average runs scored and allowed are denoted respectively by ${\rm RS}$ and ${\rm RA}$, there…
We have developed a sophisticated statistical model for predicting the hitting performance of Major League baseball players. The Bayesian paradigm provides a principled method for balancing past performance with crucial covariates, such as…
This paper proposes a simple method to evaluate batsmen and bowlers in cricket. The idea in this paper refines "book cricket" and evaluates a batsman by answering the question: How many runs a team consisting of same player replicated…
The analysis of income and wealth inequality is often constrained by the lack of reliable data. In this work, we introduce a proxy-based approach in which sports performance data are used to mimic economic distributions. In particular, the…
Modern recommender systems excel at optimizing search result relevance for e-commerce platforms. While maintaining this relevance, platforms seek opportunities to maximize revenue through search result adjustments. To address the trade-off…
In Major League Baseball, every ballpark is different, with different dimensions and climates. These differences make some ballparks more conducive to hitting home runs than others. Several factors conspire to make estimation of these…
Reinforcement learning (RL) has produced spectacular results in games, robotics, and continuous control. Yet, despite these successes, learned policies often fail to generalize beyond their training distribution, limiting real-world impact.…
We tasked GPT-4.1 to read what baseball fans wrote about their game-day experience and predict the overall experience rating each fan gave on a 0-10 survey scale. The model received only the text of a single open-ended response. These AI…
As a dedicated follower of sports statistics and with the MLB season beginning in late March, I set out to predict how many wins each team would accumulate by the end of the 162 game season. The goal was to build a simulation framework…
Scaling laws have transformed our understanding of large language models by linking upstream metrics like cross-entropy loss to design factors such as model size, training data, and compute. However, these conventional laws fail to capture…
Unlike other major professional sports, American football lacks comprehensive statistical ratings for player evaluation that are both reproducible and easily interpretable in terms of game outcomes. Existing methods for player evaluation in…
Box score statistics in the National Basketball Association are used to measure and evaluate player performance. Some of these statistics are subjective in nature and since box score statistics are recorded by scorekeepers hired by the home…
In baseball games, the coefficient of restitution of baseballs strongly affects the flying distance of batted balls, which determines the home-run probability. In Japan, the range of the coefficient of restitution of official baseballs has…
The runs test is a well-known test that is used for checking independence between elements of a sample data sequence. Some of runs tests are based on the longest run and others based on the total runs. In this paper, we consider order…