Related papers: A Win-Expectancy Framework for Contextualizing Run…
Performance metrics-driven context caching has a profound impact on throughput and response time in distributed context management systems for real-time context queries. This paper proposes a reinforcement learning based approach to…
We present a quantitative analysis of throwing ability for major league outfielders and catchers. We use detailed game event data to tabulate success and failure events in outfielder and catcher throwing opportunities. We attribute a run…
The recent growth of sophisticated digital gaming technologies has spawned an \$8.1B industry around using these games for pedagogical purposes. Though Digital Game-Based Learning Systems have been adopted by industries ranging from…
A classic tension exists between exact inference in a simple model and approximate inference in a complex model. The latter offers expressivity and thus accuracy, but the former provides coverage of the space, an important property for…
Various risk-limiting audit (RLA) methods have been developed for instant-runoff voting (IRV) elections. A recent method, AWAIRE, is the first efficient approach that can take advantage of but does not require cast vote records (CVRs).…
In this paper, we develop a logistic regression model to estimate the probability that a particular shot in an NHL game will result in a goal, and use the results to evaluate the performance of NHL skaters, goalies, and teams. We weight…
The massive growth of sports videos has resulted in a need for automatic generation of sports highlights that are comparable in quality to the hand-edited highlights produced by broadcasters such as ESPN. Unlike previous works that mostly…
Offline reinforcement learning restricts the learning process to rely only on logged-data without access to an environment. While this enables real-world applications, it also poses unique challenges. One important challenge is dealing with…
Expected goals (xG) models estimate the probability that a shot results in a goal from its context (e.g., location, pressure), but they operate only on observed shots. We propose xG+, a possession-level framework that first estimates the…
Plate discipline is an important feature of a hitter's success. Hitter who are able to recognize good pitches to swing at and balls to take are generally recognized as disciplined hitters. Although there are some metrics that can provide…
Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…
For expressive music, the tempo may change over time, posing challenges to tracking the beats by an automatic model. The model may first tap to the correct tempo, but then may fail to adapt to a tempo change, or switch between several…
The advent of social media expands our ability to transmit information and connect with others instantly, which enables us to behave as "social sensors." Here, we studied concurrent bursty behavior of Twitter users during major sporting…
We propose a principle for exploring context in machine learning models. Starting with a simple assumption that each observation may or may not depend on its context, a conditional probability distribution is decomposed into two parts:…
A ball can be hit faster if it is projected without spin but it can be hit farther if it is projected with backspin. Measurements are presented in this paper of the tradeoff between speed and spin for a baseball impacting a baseball bat.…
Ranking sportsmen whose careers took place in different eras is often a contentious issue and the topic of much debate. In this paper we focus on cricket and examine what conclusions may be drawn about the ranking of Test batsmen using data…
The National Basketball Association (NBA) imposes a player salary cap. It is therefore useful to develop tools to measure the relative realized return of a player's salary given their on court performance. Very few such studies exist,…
Can one understand the statistics of wins and losses of baseball teams? Are their consecutive-game winning and losing streaks self-reinforcing or can they be described statistically? We apply the Bradley-Terry model, which incorporates the…
We use multivariate change point analysis methods, to identify not only mean shifts but also changes in variance across a wide array of statistical time series. Our primary objective is to empirically discern distinct eras in the evolution…