Related papers: How many outbreaks before an epidemic?
Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of…
In this work we study the stability properties of the equilibrium points of deterministic epidemic models with nonconstant population size. Models with nonconstant population have been studied in the past only in particular cases, two of…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…
Epidemic spread in a population is traditionally modeled via compartmentalized models which represent the free evolution of disease in absence of any intervention policies. In addition, these models assume full observability of disease…
We propose an SEIARD mathematical model to investigate the current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Mexico. We conduct a detailed analysis of this model and demonstrate its application using publicly reported data. We calculate…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…
Mathematical models in epidemiology are an indispensable tool to determine the dynamics and important characteristics of infectious diseases. Apart from their scientific merit, these models are often used to inform political decisions and…
Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
It is crucial for policymakers to understand the community prevalence of COVID-19 so combative resources can be effectively allocated and prioritized during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, community prevalence has been assessed…
We present an empirical algorithm to forecast the evolution of the number of COVID-19 symptomatic patients in the early stages of the pandemic spread and after strict social distancing interventions. The algorithm is based on a low…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
Motivated with various responses of world governments to COVID-19, here we develop a toy model of the dependence epidemics spreading on the availability of tests for disease. Our model, that we call SUDR+K, is based on usual SIR model, but…
In the first part of this paper, we review old and new results about the influence of host population heterogeneity on (various characteristics of) epidemic outbreaks. In the second part we highlight a modelling issue that so far has…
The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal…
The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…
In stochastic modeling of infectious diseases, it has been established that variations in infectivity affect the probability of a major outbreak, but not the shape of the curves during a major outbreak, which is predicted by deterministic…
The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 has been in the center of the ongoing global health crisis in 2020. The high prevalence of mild cases facilitates sub-notification outside hospital environments and the number of those who are…
A configuration model for epidemic spread, based on a scale-free network, is introduced. We obtain the analytical solutions describing both unstable and stable dynamics of the epidemic spreading, and demonstrate how these regimes can…