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Micro-randomized trials are commonly conducted for optimizing mobile health interventions such as push notifications for behavior change. In analyzing such trials, causal excursion effects are often of primary interest, and their estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-19 Yihan Bao , Lauren Bell , Elizabeth Williamson , Claire Garnett , Tianchen Qian

The growing availability of large health databases has expanded the use of observational studies for comparative effectiveness research. Unlike randomized trials, observational studies must adjust for systematic differences in patient…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Haidong Lu , Fan Li , Laine E. Thomas , Fan Li

In response to the growing need for generating real-world evidence from multi-site collaborative studies, we introduce an efficient collaborative learning approach to evaluate average treatment effect (ECO-ATE) in a multi-site setting under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Sijia Li , Rui Duan

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) frequently utilize covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) (e.g., stratified block randomization) and commonly suffer from imperfect compliance. This paper studies the identification and inference for the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-02 Federico A. Bugni , Mengsi Gao , Filip Obradovic , Amilcar Velez

This paper proposes a new class of M-estimators that double weight for the twin problems of nonrandom treatment assignment and missing outcomes, both of which are common issues in the treatment effects literature. The proposed class is…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-24 Akanksha Negi

Under two-phase designs, the outcome and several covariates and confounders are measured in the first phase, and a new predictor of interest, which may be costly to collect, can be measured on a subsample in the second phase, without…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-12 Jingjing Zou , Lori B. Daniels , Karen Messer , Daniel Rabinowitz

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu

This paper studies semiparametric Bayesian inference for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) research design. We propose two new Bayesian methods with frequentist validity. The first…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Christoph Breunig , Ruixuan Liu , Zhengfei Yu

In causal inference about two treatments, Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) play an important role as a quantity representing an individualized causal effect, defined as a difference between the expected outcomes of the two…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-26 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi

Treatment effect estimates are often available from randomized controlled trials as a single average treatment effect for a certain patient population. Estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) are more useful for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-12 Wouter A. C. van Amsterdam , Rajesh Ranganath

In observational studies, treatments are typically not randomized and therefore estimated treatment effects may be subject to confounding bias. The instrumental variable (IV) design plays the role of a quasi-experimental handle since the IV…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-30 Lan Liu , Wang Miao , Baoluo Sun , James Robins , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Eichi Uehara

Two-phase designs involve measuring extra variables on a subset of the cohort where some variables are already measured. The goal of two-phase designs is to choose a subsample of individuals from the cohort and analyse that subsample…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-12 Tong Chen , Thomas Lumley

There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Liangyuan Hu , Chenyang Gu , Michael Lopez , Jiayi Ji , Juan Wisnivesky

In observational studies, the recorded treatment assignment is not purely random, but it is influenced by external factors such as patient characteristics, reimbursement policies, and existing guidelines. Therefore, the treatment effect can…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-02 Sara Poletto , Enrico Longato , Erica Tavazzi , Martina Vettoretti

Recently, many causal estimators for Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) and instrumental variable (IV) problems have been published and open sourced, allowing to estimate granular impact of both randomized treatments (such as A/B…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Egor Kraev , Timo Flesch , Hudson Taylor Lekunze , Mark Harley , Pere Planell Morell

A notable challenge of leveraging Electronic Health Records (EHR) for treatment effect assessment is the lack of precise information on important clinical variables, including the treatment received and the response. Both treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Jue Hou , Rajarshi Mukherjee , Tianxi Cai

The research described herewith is to re-visit the classical doubly robust estimation of average treatment effect by conducting a systematic study on the comparisons, in the sense of asymptotic efficiency, among all possible combinations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-01 Keli Guo , Chuyun Ye , Jun Fan , Lixing Zhu

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Maresa Schröder , Konstantin Hess , Niki Kilbertus , Stefan Feuerriegel

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged -- rather than directly assigned -- via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Miruna Oprescu , Brian M Cho , Nathan Kallus