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Estimating the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is very important in causal inference and has a wide range of applications across many fields. In the estimation process of CATE, the unconfoundedness assumption is typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Pengfei Shi , Wei Zhong , Xinyu Zhang , Ningtao Wang , Xing Fu , Weiqiang Wang , Yin Jin

Average treatment effect estimation is the most central problem in causal inference with application to numerous disciplines. While many estimation strategies have been proposed in the literature, the statistical optimality of these methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Jikai Jin , Vasilis Syrgkanis

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under sequentially adaptive treatment assignment mechanisms. In contrast to classical completely randomized designs, we consider a setting in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Saikat Sengupta , Koulik Khamaru , Suvrojit Ghosh , Tirthankar Dasgupta

Accurate estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is at the core of personalized decision making. While there is a plethora of models for CATE estimation, model selection is a nontrivial task, due to the fundamental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Vasilis Syrgkanis

The estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is an important topic in many scientific fields. CATEs can be estimated with high accuracy if data distributed across multiple parties are centralized. However, it is difficult…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Yuji Kawamata , Ryoki Motai , Yukihiko Okada , Akira Imakura , Tetsuya Sakurai

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

Target trial emulation (TTE) enables causal questions to be studied with observational data when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are infeasible. Yet treatment-effect methods often address causal estimation, missingness, and temporal…

This article proposes doubly robust estimators for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in difference-in-differences (DID) research designs. In contrast to alternative DID estimators, the proposed estimators are consistent if…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-07 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Jun B. Zhao

In randomized experiments with non-compliance scholars have argued that the complier average causal effect (CACE) ought to be the main causal estimand. The literature on inference of the complier average treatment effect (CACE) has focused…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-30 Zhen Zhong , Per Johansson , Junni L. Zhang

We consider the problem of designing a randomized experiment on a source population to estimate the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) on a target population. We propose a novel approach which explicitly considers the target when designing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-07 My Phan , David Arbour , Drew Dimmery , Anup B. Rao

Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation is a well-studied problem in causal inference. However, it does not necessarily capture the heterogeneity in the data, and several approaches have been proposed to tackle the issue, including…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Raghavendra Addanki , Siddharth Bhandari

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

In cluster randomized trials, patients are typically recruited after clusters are randomized, and the recruiters and patients may not be blinded to the assignment. This often leads to differential recruitment and consequently systematic…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-05 Fan Li , Zizhong Tian , Jennifer Bobb , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Fan Li

Study populations are typically sampled from limited points in space and time, and marginalized groups are underrepresented. To assess the external validity of randomized and observational studies, we propose and evaluate the worst-case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-04 Sookyo Jeong , Hongseok Namkoong

We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE).…

The estimation of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) as a causal parameter is carried out in two steps, where in the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled to incorporate the potential confounders, and in the second step, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-09 Mehdi Rostami , Olli Saarela

The research is about a systematic investigation on the following issues. First, we construct different outcome regression-based estimators for conditional average treatment effect under, respectively, true (oracle), parametric,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Lu Li , Niwen Zhou , Lixing Zhu

Causal inference from observational datasets often relies on measuring and adjusting for covariates. In practice, measurements of the covariates can often be noisy and/or biased, or only measurements of their proxies may be available.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Wenshuo Guo , Mingzhang Yin , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Experiments are the gold standard for causal inference. In many applications, experimental units can often be recruited or chosen sequentially, and the adaptive execution of such experiments may offer greatly improved inference of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-14 Difan Song , Simon Mak , C. F. Jeff Wu

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis