Semiparametric Bayesian Difference-in-Differences
Abstract
This paper studies semiparametric Bayesian inference for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) research design. We propose two new Bayesian methods with frequentist validity. The first one places a standard Gaussian process prior on the conditional mean function of the control group. The second method is a double robust Bayesian procedure that adjusts the prior distribution of the conditional mean function and subsequently corrects the posterior distribution of the resulting ATT. We prove new semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorems for both proposals. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian DiD methods exhibit strong finite-sample performance compared to existing frequentist methods. We also present extensions of the canonical DiD approach, incorporating both the staggered design and the repeated cross-sectional design.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2412.04605,
title = {Semiparametric Bayesian Difference-in-Differences},
author = {Christoph Breunig and Ruixuan Liu and Zhengfei Yu},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.04605},
year = {2025}
}