English

Semiparametric posterior corrections

Methodology 2023-06-21 v2 Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate low-dimensional functionals of interest without being restricted by the holistic Bayesian formalism. Starting from a conventional nonparametric posterior, we target the functional of interest by transforming the entire distribution with a Bayesian bootstrap correction. We provide conditions for the resulting one-step posterior\textit{one-step posterior} to possess calibrated frequentist properties and specialize the results for several canonical examples: the integrated squared density, the mean of a missing-at-random outcome, and the average causal treatment effect on the treated. The procedure is computationally attractive, requiring only a simple, efficient post-processing step that can be attached onto any arbitrary posterior sampling algorithm. Using the ACIC 2016 causal data analysis competition, we illustrate that our approach can outperform the existing state-of-the-art through the propagation of Bayesian uncertainty.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2306.06059,
  title  = {Semiparametric posterior corrections},
  author = {Andrew Yiu and Edwin Fong and Chris Holmes and Judith Rousseau},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.06059},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

53 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-28T11:01:17.544Z