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Bayesian optimisation has proven to be a powerful tool for expensive global black-box optimisation problems. In this paper, we propose new Bayesian optimisation variants of the popular Knowledge Gradient acquisition functions for problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Xietao Wang Lin , Juan Ungredda , Max Butler , James Town , Alma Rahat , Hemant Singh , Juergen Branke

The radiological characterization of contaminated elements (walls, grounds, objects) from nuclear facilities often suffers from a too small number of measurements. In order to determine risk prediction bounds on the level of contamination,…

Applications · Statistics 2017-05-30 Géraud Blatman , Thibault Delage , Bertrand Iooss , Nadia Pérot

We study PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs) with the cross entropy loss. Above all, we introduce probabilistic explanations for MLPs in two aspects: (i) MLPs formulate a family of Gibbs distributions, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-18 Xinjie Lan , Xin Guo , Kenneth E. Barner

We derive PAC-Bayesian learning guarantees for heavy-tailed losses, and obtain a novel optimal Gibbs posterior which enjoys finite-sample excess risk bounds at logarithmic confidence. Our core technique itself makes use of PAC-Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-19 Matthew J. Holland

We address imbalanced classification, the problem in which a label may have low marginal probability relative to other labels, by weighting losses according to the correct class. First, we examine the convergence rates of the expected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-28 Ziyu Xu , Chen Dan , Justin Khim , Pradeep Ravikumar

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. It is found empirically that adversarially robust generalization is crucial in establishing defense algorithms against adversarial attacks. Therefore, it is interesting to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Jiancong Xiao , Ruoyu Sun , Zhi- Quan Luo

PAC-Bayesian is an analysis framework where the training error can be expressed as the weighted average of the hypotheses in the posterior distribution whilst incorporating the prior knowledge. In addition to being a pure generalization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Wei Huang , Chunrui Liu , Yilan Chen , Tianyu Liu , Richard Yi Da Xu

We present two alternative ways to apply PAC-Bayesian analysis to sequences of dependent random variables. The first is based on a new lemma that enables to bound expectations of convex functions of certain dependent random variables by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-05-20 Yevgeny Seldin , François Laviolette , John Shawe-Taylor , Jan Peters , Peter Auer

Generalization bounds for deep learning models are typically vacuous, not computable or restricted to specific model classes. In this paper, we tackle these issues by providing new disagreement-based certificates for the gap between the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Mathieu Bazinet , Valentina Zantedeschi , Pascal Germain

This paper proposes a safety analysis method that facilitates a tunable balance between the worst-case and risk-neutral perspectives. First, we define a risk-sensitive safe set to specify the degree of safety attained by a stochastic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-28 Margaret P. Chapman , Jonathan P. Lacotte , Kevin M. Smith , Insoon Yang , Yuxi Han , Marco Pavone , Claire J. Tomlin

Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Conditional Autoregressive Expectile have become two popular approaches for direct measurement of market risk. Since their introduction several improvements both in the Bayesian and in the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-01 Marco Bottone , Mauro Bernardi , Lea Petrella

Both PAC-Bayesian and Sample Compress learning frameworks are instrumental for deriving tight (non-vacuous) generalization bounds for neural networks. We leverage these results in a meta-learning scheme, relying on a hypernetwork that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Benjamin Leblanc , Mathieu Bazinet , Nathaniel D'Amours , Alexandre Drouin , Pascal Germain

The Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) Bayes framework (McAllester, 1999) can incorporate knowledge about the learning algorithm and (data) distribution through the use of distribution-dependent priors, yielding tighter generalization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-22 Gintare Karolina Dziugaite , Daniel M. Roy

We present here a PAC-Bayesian point of view on adaptive supervised classification. Using convex analysis, we show how to get local measures of the complexity of the classification model involving the relative entropy of posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Olivier Catoni

Datasets displaying temporal dependencies abound in science and engineering applications, with Markov models representing a simplified and popular view of the temporal dependence structure. In this paper, we consider Bayesian settings that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-27 Imon Banerjee , Vinayak A. Rao , Harsha Honnappa

We present a novel notion of complexity that interpolates between and generalizes some classic existing complexity notions in learning theory: for estimators like empirical risk minimization (ERM) with arbitrary bounded losses, it is upper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-24 Peter D. Grünwald , Nishant A. Mehta

Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR) measure is a convenient coherent risk measure. Due to certain difficulties in finding its analytical representation, it was previously calculated explicitly only for the normal distribution. We succeeded to…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-05 Yuliya Mishura , Kostiantyn Ralchenko , Petro Zelenko , Volodymyr Zubchenko

We study the issue of PAC-Bayesian domain adaptation: We want to learn, from a source domain, a majority vote model dedicated to a target one. Our theoretical contribution brings a new perspective by deriving an upper-bound on the target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-27 Pascal Germain , Amaury Habrard , François Laviolette , Emilie Morvant

Abstract We present PAC-Bayesian bounds for the generalisation error of the K-nearest-neighbour classifier (K-NN). This is achieved by casting the K-NN classifier into a kernel space framework in the limit of vanishing kernel bandwidth. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Thore Graepel , Ralf Herbrich

We provide two main contributions in PAC-Bayesian theory for domain adaptation where the objective is to learn, from a source distribution, a well-performing majority vote on a different, but related, target distribution. Firstly, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-19 Pascal Germain , Amaury Habrard , François Laviolette , Emilie Morvant