Related papers: PAC-Bayesian Bounds on Constrained f-Entropic Risk…
Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets…
This paper introduces the notions of stability, ultimate boundedness, and positive invariance for stochastic systems in the view of risk. More specifically, those notions are defined in terms of the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk…
Performance bounds for parameter estimation play a crucial role in statistical signal processing theory and applications. Two widely recognized bounds are the Cram\'{e}r-Rao bound (CRB) in the non-Bayesian framework, and the Bayesian CRB…
Risk sensitive decision making finds important applications in current day use cases. Existing risk measures consider a single or finite collection of random variables, which do not account for the asymptotic behaviour of underlying…
Existing research has either adapted the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) Bayesian framework for federated learning (FL) or used information-theoretic PAC-Bayesian bounds while introducing their theorems, but few considering the non-IID…
In this paper, we present refined probabilistic bounds on empirical reward estimates for off-policy learning in bandit problems. We build on the PAC-Bayesian bounds from Seldin et al. (2010) and improve on their results using a new…
This paper contains a recipe for deriving new PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds based on the $(f, \Gamma)$-divergence, and, in addition, presents PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds where we interpolate between a series of probability divergences…
In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for bounding the CVaR of a random variable $X$ using another related random variable $Y$, under assumptions on their cumulative and density functions. Our results yield practical tools for…
PAC-Bayes has recently re-emerged as an effective theory with which one can derive principled learning algorithms with tight performance guarantees. However, applications of PAC-Bayes to bandit problems are relatively rare, which is a great…
In the problem of aggregation, the aim is to combine a given class of base predictors to achieve predictions nearly as accurate as the best one. In this flexible framework, no assumption is made on the structure of the class or the nature…
Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting…
Bayesian methods, distributionally robust optimization methods, and regularization methods are three pillars of trustworthy machine learning combating distributional uncertainty, e.g., the uncertainty of an empirical distribution compared…
We consider Bayesian optimization of objective functions of the form $\rho[ F(x, W) ]$, where $F$ is a black-box expensive-to-evaluate function and $\rho$ denotes either the VaR or CVaR risk measure, computed with respect to the randomness…
The aim of this paper is to provide several novel upper bounds on the excess risk with a primal focus on classification problems. We suggest two approaches and the obtained bounds are represented via the distribution dependent local…
This article studies the achievable guarantees on the error rates of certain learning algorithms, with particular focus on refining logarithmic factors. Many of the results are based on a general technique for obtaining bounds on the error…
We study Bayesian persuasion when the receiver evaluates actions by reward-side Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) rather than expected utility. CVaR preferences break the standard action-based direct-recommendation reduction: merging signals…
Recently, there has been a significant focus on exploring the theoretical aspects of deep learning, especially regarding its performance in classification tasks. Bayesian deep learning has emerged as a unified probabilistic framework,…
While PAC-Bayes is now an established learning framework for light-tailed losses (\emph{e.g.}, subgaussian or subexponential), its extension to the case of heavy-tailed losses remains largely uncharted and has attracted a growing interest…
Conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) is one of the most important measures of systemic risk. It is defined as the high quantile conditional on a related variable being extreme, widely used in the field of quantitative risk management. In this…
This paper studies the truncation method from Alquier [1] to derive high-probability PAC-Bayes bounds for unbounded losses with heavy tails. Assuming that the $p$-th moment is bounded, the resulting bounds interpolate between a slow rate $1…