Related papers: MCMC for State Space models

Markov state models (MSMs) have been demonstrated to be a powerful method for computationally studying intramolecular processes such as protein folding and macromolecular conformational changes. In this article, we present a new approach to…

This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et…

Markov state models (MSMs) are widely employed to analyze the kinetics of complex systems. But despite their effectiveness in many applications, MSMs are prone to systematic or statistical errors, often exacerbated by suboptimal…

Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a…

Partially-observable problems pose a trade-off between reducing costs and gathering information. They can be solved optimally by planning in belief space, but that is often prohibitively expensive. Model-predictive control (MPC) takes the…

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differential equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the development and application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational…

We investigate active learning in Gaussian Process state-space models (GPSSM). Our problem is to actively steer the system through latent states by determining its inputs such that the underlying dynamics can be optimally learned by a…

In medical research, understanding changes in outcome measurements is crucial for inferring shifts in health conditions. However, traditional methods often struggle with large, irregularly longitudinal data and fail to account for the…

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

Spatio-temporal prediction of levels of an environmental exposure is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Our work is motivated by multiple studies on the spatio-temporal distribution of mobile source, or traffic related,…

Latent autoregressive processes are a popular choice to model time varying parameters. These models can be formulated as nonlinear state space models for which inference is not straightforward due to the high number of parameters. Therefore…

Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…

Gibbs sampling is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method often used in Bayesian learning. MCMC methods can be difficult to deploy on parallel and distributed systems due to their inherently sequential nature. We study asynchronous Gibbs…

Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…

Conventional imitation learning assumes access to the actions of demonstrators, but these motor signals are often non-observable in naturalistic settings. Additionally, sequential decision-making behaviors in these settings can deviate from…

We propose a simple model for sample space reducing (SSR) stochastic process, where the dynamical variable denoting the size of the state space is continuous. In general, one can view the model as a multiplicative stochastic process, with a…

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems.…

We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…

Data-driven, model-free analytics are natural choices for discovery and forecasting of complex, nonlinear systems. Methods that operate in the system state-space require either an explicit multidimensional state-space, or, one approximated…

Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of hidden Markov models (HMMs) involves latent states underlying an imperfect observation process, and generates posterior samples for top-level parameters concurrently with nuisance…