Related papers: MCMC for State Space models
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…
State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of data points related to the state are…
Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show…
To estimate the smoothing distribution in a nonlinear state space model, we apply the conditional particle filter with ancestor sampling. This gives an iterative algorithm in a Markov chain Monte Carlo fashion, with asymptotic convergence…
Model predictive control (MPC) has proven useful in enabling safe and optimal motion planning for autonomous vehicles. In this paper, we investigate how to achieve MPC-based motion planning when a neural state-space model represents the…
In this paper, we prove that finite state space non parametric hidden Markov models are identifiable as soon as the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and the emission probability distributions are linearly…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a widely-used statistical model for handling sequential data. However, the presence of missing observations in real-world datasets often complicates the application of the model. The EM algorithm and Gibbs…
I describe a new Markov chain method for sampling from the distribution of the state sequences in a non-linear state space model, given the observation sequence. This method updates all states in the sequence simultaneously using an…
Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest…
Gaussian Process state-space models capture complex temporal dependencies in a principled manner by placing a Gaussian Process prior on the transition function. These models have a natural interpretation as discretized stochastic…
We consider Bayesian inference in sequential latent variable models in general, and in nonlinear state space models in particular (i.e., state smoothing). We work with sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, which provide a powerful…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…
Smoothing in state-space models amounts to computing the conditional distribution of the latent state trajectory, given observations, or expectations of functionals of the state trajectory with respect to this distributions. For models that…
Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose…
This work presents a scalable control framework based on nonlinear Model Predictive Control for high-dimensional dynamical systems. The proposed approach addresses the key challenges of model scalability and partial observability by…
We consider the problem of sampling from a product-of-experts-type model that encompasses many standard prior and posterior distributions commonly found in Bayesian imaging. We show that this model can be easily lifted into a novel latent…
We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to perform state inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. Current state-of-the-art methods to address this problem rely on particle MCMC techniques and its variants, such…
This work attempts to approximate a linear Gaussian system with a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM), which is found useful in solving sophisticated event-based state estimation problems. An indirect modeling approach is developed,…
Likelihood-free inference (LFI) has been successfully applied to state-space models, where the likelihood of observations is not available but synthetic observations generated by a black-box simulator can be used for inference instead.…
We propose a new flexible tensor model for multiple-equation regression that accounts for latent regime changes. The model allows for dynamic coefficients and multi-dimensional covariates that vary across equations. We assume the…