Related papers: MCMC for State Space models
State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the…
Many real-world dynamical systems can be described as State-Space Models (SSMs). In this formulation, each observation is emitted by a latent state, which follows first-order Markovian dynamics. A Probabilistic Deep SSM (ProDSSM)…
Circular time series has received relatively little attention in statistics and modeling complex circular time series using the state space approach is non-existent in the literature. In this article we introduce a flexible Bayesian…
We propose a novel blocked version of the continuous-time bouncy particle sampler of [Bouchard-C\^ot\'e et al., 2018] which is applicable to any differentiable probability density. This alternative implementation is motivated by blocked…
Recurrent State-space models (RSSMs) are highly expressive models for learning patterns in time series data and system identification. However, these models assume that the dynamics are fixed and unchanging, which is rarely the case in…
State-space models provide an important body of techniques for analyzing time-series, but their use requires estimating unobserved states. The optimal estimate of the state is its conditional expectation given the observation histories, and…
Sampling-based methods have become a cornerstone of contemporary approaches to Model Predictive Control (MPC), as they make no restrictions on the differentiability of the dynamics or cost function and are straightforward to parallelize.…
We consider Bayesian inference from multiple time series described by a common state-space model (SSM) structure, but where different subsets of parameters are shared between different submodels. An important example is disease-dynamics,…
Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to…
Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) is a fully probabilistic state-space model that has attracted much attention over the past decade. However, the outputs of the transition function in the existing GPSSMs are assumed to be…
Sampling from the full posterior distribution of high-dimensional non-linear, non-Gaussian latent dynamical models presents significant computational challenges. While Particle Gibbs (also known as conditional sequential Monte Carlo) is…
We develop efficient simulation techniques for Bayesian inference on switching GARCH models. Our contribution to existing literature is manifold. First, we discuss different multi-move sampling techniques for Markov Switching (MS) state…
Gaussian-process state-space models (GP-SSMs) provide a flexible nonparametric alternative for modeling time-series dynamics that are nonlinear or difficult to specify parametrically. While the Kalman filter is effective for linear-Gaussian…
High-dimensional state trajectories of state-space models pose challenges for Bayesian inference. Particle Gibbs (PG) methods have been widely used to sample from the posterior of a state space model. Basically, particle Gibbs is a Particle…
In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…
State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…
Multi-sensor state space models underpin fusion applications in networks of sensors. Estimation of latent parameters in these models has the potential to provide highly desirable capabilities such as network self-calibration. Conventional…
State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…
This paper introduces new efficient algorithms for two problems: sampling conditional on vertex degrees in unweighted graphs, and sampling conditional on vertex strengths in weighted graphs. The algorithms can sample conditional on the…
In stochastic modeling, there has been a significant effort towards finding predictive models that predict a stochastic process' future using minimal information from its past. Meanwhile, in condensed matter physics, matrix product states…