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This paper develops an approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems by integrating probabilistic input forecasting with physics-informed output prediction. Accurate multi-step forecasting of time series systems is important for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Mahdi Nasiri , Johanna Kortelainen , Simo Särkkä

Recently developed reduced-order modeling techniques aim to approximate nonlinear dynamical systems on low-dimensional manifolds learned from data. This is an effective approach for modeling dynamics in a post-transient regime where the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-09-27 Samuel E. Otto , Gregory R. Macchio , Clarence W. Rowley

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

Learning stable dynamics from observed time-series data is an essential problem in robotics, physical modeling, and systems biology. Many of these dynamics are represented as an inputs-output system to communicate with the external…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Yuji Okamoto , Ryosuke Kojima

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a ubiquitous modeling framework that finds applications in physics, biology, engineering, social science, and finance. Due to the availability of large-scale data sets, there is growing interest…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-04 Ziheng Guo , James Greene , Ming Zhong

Stochastic averaging allows for the reduction of the dimension and complexity of stochastic dynamical systems with multiple time scales, replacing fast variables with statistically equivalent stochastic processes in order to analyze…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-25 William F. Thompson , Rachel A. Kuske , Adam H. Monahan

A hybrid dynamical system switches between dynamic regimes at time- or state-triggered events. We propose an offline algorithm that simultaneously estimates discrete and continuous components of a hybrid system's state. We formulate state…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-23 Jize Zhang , Andrew M. Pace , Samuel A. Burden , Aleksandr Aravkin

The theory of slow manifolds is an important tool in the study of deterministic dynamical systems, giving a practical method by which to reduce the number of relevant degrees of freedom in a model, thereby often resulting in a considerable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-07-01 George W A Constable , Alan J McKane , Tim Rogers

We propose an approach for learning the causal structure in stochastic dynamical systems with a $1$-step functional dependency in the presence of latent variables. We propose an information-theoretic approach that allows us to recover the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-01-25 Saber Salehkaleybar , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Learning a policy using only observational data is challenging because the distribution of states it induces at execution time may differ from the distribution observed during training. We propose to train a policy by unrolling a learned…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-10 Mikael Henaff , Alfredo Canziani , Yann LeCun

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a popular choice for learning latent variable models. Variants of the EM have been initially introduced, using incremental updates to scale to large datasets, and using Monte Carlo (MC)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-22 Belhal Karimi , Ping Li

Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 M. Chung , M. Binois , R. B. Gramacy , D. J. Moquin , A. P. Smith , A. M. Smith

We study the asymptotics of a two-dimensional stochastic differential system with a degenerate diffusion matrix. This system describes the dynamics of a population where individuals contribute to the degradation of their environment through…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-05-06 Pierre Collet , Claire Ecotière , Sylvie Méléard

Robust stability and stochastic stability have separately seen intense study in control theory for many decades. In this work we establish relations between these properties for discrete-time systems and employ them for robust control…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-04-20 Benjamin Gravell , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Tyler Summers

Learning robust and generalizable world models is crucial for enabling efficient and scalable robotic control in real-world environments. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for learning world models that accurately capture…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Chenhao Li , Andreas Krause , Marco Hutter

In a common experimental setting, the behaviour of a noisy dynamical system is monitored in response to manipulations of one or more control parameters. Here, we introduce a structured model to describe parametric changes in qualitative…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-07-05 Gergo Bohner , Maneesh Sahani

This paper is concerned with a characterization of the observability for a continuous-time hidden Markov model where the state evolves as a general continuous-time Markov process and the observation process is modeled as nonlinear function…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-25 Jin W. Kim , Prashant G. Mehta

We propose a novel data-driven stochastic model predictive control framework for uncertain linear systems with noisy output measurements. Our approach leverages multi-step predictors to efficiently propagate uncertainty, ensuring chance…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-18 Haldun Balim , Andrea Carron , Melanie N. Zeilinger , Johannes Köhler

We consider the problem of selecting deterministic or stochastic models for a biological, ecological, or environmental dynamical process. In most cases, one prefers either deterministic or stochastic models as candidate models based on…

Applications · Statistics 2015-10-26 Libo Sun , Chihoon Lee , Jennifer A. Hoeting

The data-driven recovery of the unknown governing equations of dynamical systems has recently received an increasing interest. However, the identification of governing equations remains challenging when dealing with noisy and partial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Duong Nguyen , Said Ouala , Lucas Drumetz , Ronan Fablet