Related papers: Mathematical Framework for Epidemic Dynamics: Opti…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
In this paper, we formulate cyber risk management and mitigation as a stochastic optimal control problem under a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. To capture the dynamics and interplay of management and…
The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…
Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…
In this paper we introduce an approach to the management of infectious disease diffusion through the formulation of a controlled compartmental SVIR (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered) model. We consider a cost functional…
Various non pharmaceutical interventions have been settled to minimise the burden of the COVID-19 outbreak. We build a framework to analyse the dynamics of non pharmaceutical interventions, to distinguish between mitigations measures…
The SIR model is the cornerstone model for mathematical epidemiology, explaining key epidemic features such as the second-order transition between disease-free and epidemic states, the initial exponential growth of outbreaks or the…
Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are…
The SIR model is one of the most prototypical compartmental models in epidemiology. Generalizing this ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework into a spatially distributed partial differential equation (PDE) model is a considerable…
We design and analyze a multi-level game-theoretic model of hierarchical policy interventions for epidemic control, such as those in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our model captures the potentially mismatched priorities among a…
In this paper we make the first steps to bridge the gap between classic control theory and modern, network-based epidemic models. In particular, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to a pairwise ODE model which we use to…
In this work, we develop a spatial SEIAR-type epidemic model considering a quarantined population (denoted as Q), which we call the SQEIAR model. The dynamics of the SQEIAR model are described by six Partial Differential Equations (PDEs)…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
The ever-changing world of disease study heavily relies on mathematical models. They are key in finding and controlling infectious diseases. We aim to explore these mathematical tools used for studying disease spread in biology. The SEIR…
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
During an epidemic outbreak, individuals often modify their behavior in response to global prevalence cues, using spatially mediated adaptations such as reduced mobility or transmission range. In this work, we investigate the impact of…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…
We extend the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to a network-based framework where the degree distribution of nodes follows a Poisson distribution. This extension incorporates an additional parameter representing the mean…