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This paper proposes a versatile covariate adjustment method that directly incorporates covariate balance in regression discontinuity (RD) designs. The new empirical entropy balancing method reweights the standard local polynomial RD…
Spectral methods are widely used to estimate eigenvectors of a low-rank signal matrix subject to noise. These methods use the leading eigenspace of an observed matrix to estimate this low-rank signal. Typically, the entrywise estimation…
We introduce a new sparse estimator of the covariance matrix for high-dimensional models in which the variables have a known ordering. Our estimator, which is the solution to a convex optimization problem, is equivalently expressed as an…
We incorporate heteroskedasticity into Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) by modeling the log of the error variance parameter as a linear function of prespecified covariates. Under this scheme, the Gibbs sampling procedure for the…
We discuss a class of difference-based estimators for the autocovariance in nonparametric regression when the signal is discontinuous (change-point regression), possibly highly fluctuating, and the errors form a stationary $m$-dependent…
A causal vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is introduced for weakly stationary multivariate processes, combining a recursive directed graphical model for the contemporaneous components and a vector autoregressive model longitudinally.…
Most pseudo-label selection strategies in semi-supervised learning rely on fixed confidence thresholds, implicitly assuming that prediction confidence reliably indicates correctness. In practice, deep networks are often overconfident:…
We study the problem of detecting an abrupt change to the signal covariance matrix. In particular, the covariance changes from a "white" identity matrix to an unknown spiked or low-rank matrix. Two sequential change-point detection…
The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has been extensively studied in the estimation and simulation literature, with most prior work focusing on convergence behavior and asymptotic theory. However, its covariance structure-an important…
Covariance estimation for matrix-valued data has received an increasing interest in applications. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on matrix normal distribution assumption and the requirement of fixed matrix size, we propose a class…
Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) have become very popular techniques to perform inference and learning in latent variable models as they allow us to leverage the rich representational power of neural networks to obtain flexible…
We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…
We introduce an estimation method of covariance matrices in a high-dimensional setting, i.e., when the dimension of the matrix, , is larger than the sample size . Specifically, we propose an orthogonally equivariant estimator. The…
We introduce a covariance matrix estimator that both takes into account the heteroskedasticity of financial returns (by using an exponentially weighted moving average) and reduces the effective dimensionality of the estimation (and hence…
We consider the estimation of the transition matrix in the high-dimensional time-varying vector autoregression (TV-VAR) models. Our model builds on a general class of locally stationary VAR processes that evolve smoothly in time. We propose…
Brittle optimization has been observed to adversely impact model likelihoods for regression and VAEs when simultaneously fitting neural network mappings from a (random) variable onto the mean and variance of a dependent Gaussian variable.…
Identifying structural parameters in linear simultaneous-equation models is a longstanding challenge. Recent work exploits information in higher-order moments of non-Gaussian data. In this literature, the structural errors are typically…
This paper aims to address two fundamental challenges arising in eigenvector estimation and inference for a low-rank matrix from noisy observations: (1) how to estimate an unknown eigenvector when the eigen-gap (i.e. the spacing between the…
We propose a novel constraint-handling technique for the covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES). The proposed technique is aimed at solving explicitly constrained black-box continuous optimization problems, in which the…
We study adaptive aggregation for heterogeneous local SGD in convex finite-sum optimization, allowing heterogeneous local horizons, minibatch sizes, gradient noise, and participation. We introduce HEW-Local SGD, a corrected local-SGD method…