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In the framework of homogeneous susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models, we use a control theory approach to identify optimal pandemic mitigation strategies. We derive rather general conditions for reaching herd immunity while…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-07-05 Prakhar Godara , Stephan Herminghaus , Knut M. Heidemann

We study dynamics of a variant of the SIR the model, where we assume that individuals respond differently to dynamics of the epidemic. Their heterogeneous response is modeled by the Preisach hysteresis operator. The degree of heterogeneity…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-03-16 Dmitrii Rachinskii , Samiha Rouf

We consider the problem of the optimal allocation of vaccination and protection measures for the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Infected (SIRI) epidemiological model, which generalizes the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-09 Urmee Maitra , Ashish R. Hota , Rohit Gupta , Alfred O. Hero

We propose and study a compartmental model for epidemiology with human behavioral effects. Specifically, our model incorporates governmental prevention measures aimed at lowering the disease infection rate, but we split the population into…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-16 Chloe Ngo , Christian Parkinson , Weinan Wang

In this paper, we consider an optimal distributed control problem for a reaction-diffusion-based SIR epidemic model with human behavioral effects. We develop a model wherein non-pharmaceutical intervention methods are implemented, but a…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Marcelo Bongarti , Christian Parkinson , Weinan Wang

We study the problem of optimal control of the stochastic SIR model. Models of this type are used in mathematical epidemiology to capture the time evolution of highly infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Our approach relies on…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-04 Andrew Lesniewski

We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-07-26 Robert F. Allen , Katherine Heller , Matthew A. Pons

To simplify mathematical models of disease spread, we often assume equal contact rates among hosts, but real-world scenarios differ. Network-based frameworks help capture these complexities and structural variations in actual systems. We…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-07-03 Saswata Das , Mohammad Hossein Samaei , Caterina Scoglio

This paper proposes a feedback design that effectively copes with uncertainties for reliable epidemic monitoring and control. There are several optimization-based methods to estimate the parameters of an epidemic model by utilizing past…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Muhammad Umar B. Niazi , Philip E. Paré , Karl H. Johansson

This article is devoted to the analysis of a particle system model for epidemics among a finite population with susceptible, infective and removed individuals (SIR). The infection mechanism depends on the relative distance between…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-10 Monia Capanna

Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-12-21 César Parra-Rojas , Thomas House , Alan J. McKane

We present a detailed set-based analysis of the well-known SIR and SEIR epidemic models subjected to hard caps on the proportion of infective individuals, and bounds on the allowable intervention strategies, such as social distancing,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-17 Willem Esterhuizen , Jean Lévine , Stefan Streif

We introduce a policy model coupled with the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model to study interactions between policy-making and the dynamics of epidemics. We consider both single-region policies, as well as game-theoretic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-06 Xia Li , Andrea L. Bertozzi , P. Jeffrey Brantingham , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-17 Christian Gourieroux , Yang Lu

The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-04-27 William G. Faris

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Frank Ball , David Sirl , Pieter Trapman

We present a data-driven optimal control approach which integrates the reported partial data with the epidemic dynamics for COVID-19. We use a basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, the model parameters are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-22 Hailiang Liu , Xuping Tian

This paper is concerned with the well-posedness and optimal control problem of a reaction-diffusion system for an epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) mathematical model in which the dynamics develops in a spatially…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-24 Pierluigi Colli , Gianni Gilardi , Gabriela Marinoschi , Elisabetta Rocca

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-07 Omar Melikechi , Alexander L. Young , Tao Tang , Trevor Bowman , David Dunson , James Johndrow

Susceptibility governs the dynamics of contagion. The classical SIR model is one of the simplest compartmental models of contagion spread, assuming a single shared susceptibility level. However, variation in susceptibility over a population…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-22 Christopher Rose , Andrew J. Medford , C. Franklin Goldsmith , Tejs Vegge , Joshua Weitz , Andrew A. Peterson