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When the early stopping parameter n.earlystop is relatively small or the cohortsize value is not optimized via simulation, it may be better to use p.tox < 1.4 * target.DLT.rate, or try out different cohort sizes, or increase n.earlystop,…

Medical Physics · Physics 2024-03-18 Rong Lu

Uncertainty in state or model parameters is common in robotics and typically handled by acquiring system measurements that yield information about the uncertain quantities of interest. Inputs to a nonlinear dynamical system yield outcomes…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Parker Ewen , Gitesh Gunjal , Joey Wilson , Jinsun Liu , Challen Enninful Adu , Ram Vasudevan

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an approach to globally optimizing black-box objective functions that are expensive to evaluate. BO-powered experimental design has found wide application in materials science, chemistry, experimental physics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Mimi Zhang , Andrew Parnell , Dermot Brabazon , Alessio Benavoli

This paper proposes a novel criterion for the allocation of patients in Phase~I dose-escalation clinical trials aiming to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Conventionally, using a model-based approach the next patient is allocated to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-17 Pavel Mozgunov , Thomas Jaki

Combining discovery and augmentation is important in the era of data usage when it comes to predicting the outcome of tasks. However, having to ask the user the utility function to discover the goal to achieve the optimal small rightful…

Databases · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Thomas Hoang

Model-assisted interval designs such as the Keyboard design are transparent and easy to implement in phase I oncology trials. However, interim decisions based solely on data from the current dose may overlook informative signals from…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-26 Jiangyan Zhao , Xian Shi , Jin Xu

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released a landmark draft guidance in January 2026 on the use of Bayesian methodology to support primary inference in clinical trials of drugs and biological products. For sponsors, the central…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-22 Yuan Ji , Ph. D

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular approach for sample-efficient optimization of black-box objective functions. While BO has been successfully applied to a wide range of scientific applications, traditional approaches to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-04 Natalie Maus , Kaiwen Wu , David Eriksson , Jacob Gardner

Model-assisted designs have garnered significant attention in recent years due to their high accuracy in identifying the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and their operational simplicity. To identify the MTD, they employ estimated dose limiting…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-19 Rentaro Wakayama , Tomotaka Momozaki , Shuji Ando

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely-used sequential method for zeroth-order optimization of complex and expensive-to-compute black-box functions. The existing BO methods assume that the function evaluation (feedback) is available to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Arun Verma , Zhongxiang Dai , Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

We propose an adaptive design for early phase drug combination cancer trials with the goal of estimating the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). A nonparametric Bayesian model, using beta priors truncated to the set of partially ordered dose…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-22 Zahra S. Razaee , Galen Wien-Cook , Mourad Tighiouart

Bayesian optimization (BO) with preference-based feedback has recently garnered significant attention due to its emerging applications. We refer to this problem as Bayesian Optimization from Human Feedback (BOHF), which differs from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Aya Kayal , Sattar Vakili , Laura Toni , Da-shan Shiu , Alberto Bernacchia

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to conduct the most informative experiment under budget constraints to update the prior knowledge of a system to its posterior from the experimental data in a Bayesian framework. Such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Rafael Orozco , Felix J. Herrmann , Peng Chen

When it comes to expensive black-box optimization problems, Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a well-known and powerful solution. Many real-world applications involve a large number of dimensions, hence scaling BO to high dimension is of much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-18 Lam Ngo , Huong Ha , Jeffrey Chan , Hongyu Zhang

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) is a principled framework for making efficient use of limited experimental resources. Unfortunately, its applicability is hampered by the difficulty of obtaining accurate estimates of the expected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-15 Adam Foster , Martin Jankowiak , Eli Bingham , Paul Horsfall , Yee Whye Teh , Tom Rainforth , Noah Goodman

An important tool to evaluate the performance of any design is an optimal benchmark proposed by O'Quigley and others (2002, Biostatistics 3(1), 51-56) that provides an upper bound on the performance of a design under a given scenario. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-06 Pavel Mozgunov , Thomas Jaki , Xavier Paoletti

We consider the utilization of a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to inform the stochastic description of model input parameters. Our formulation is based on the recently developed consistent…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott N. Walsh , Tim M. Wildey , John D. Jakeman

Botulinum toxin (Botox) injections are the gold standard for managing facial asymmetry and aesthetic rejuvenation, yet determining the optimal dosage remains largely intuitive, often leading to suboptimal outcomes. We propose a localized…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Estèphe Arnaud , Mohamed Daoudi , Pierre Guerreschi

Background: Phase I trials desire to identify the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) early and proceed quickly to an expansion cohort or phase II trial for efficacy. We propose an early completion method based on multiple dosages to accelerate…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-10-04 Masahiro Kojima

A major practical impediment when implementing adaptive dose-finding designs is that the toxicity outcome used by the decision rules may not be observed shortly after the initiation of the treatment. To address this issue, we propose the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-01-09 Suyu Liu , Guosheng Yin , Ying Yuan