Related papers: Confidence Intervals for Extinction Risk: Validati…
We consider clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is compared with a control in pre-specified patient subpopulations. In such settings, adaptive enrichment designs allow the enrolled population to be modified at an interim…
Understanding the relationship between a populations probability of extinction and its carrying capacity frames conservation status assessments and guides efforts to understand and mitigate the ongoing biodiversity crisis. Despite this, our…
We study the extinction of epidemics in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where a susceptible individual becomes infected with the rate $\lambda$ when contacting $m$ infective individual(s) simultaneously, and an…
Random Forests are renowned for their predictive accuracy, but valid inference, particularly about permutation-based feature importances, remains challenging. Existing methods, such as the confidence intervals (CIs) from Ishwaran et al.…
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the…
We study the minimum eradication time problem for controlled Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic models that incorporate vaccination control and time-varying infected and recovery rates. Unlike the SIR model with constant rates,…
Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 50's with the KiSS (after Kierstead, Slobodkin…
Confidence interval performance is typically assessed in terms of two criteria: coverage probability and interval width (or margin of error). In this paper, we assess the performance of four common proportion interval estimators: the Wald,…
We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the population mean of $N$ values $\{x_1, \ldots, x_N\} \subset \Sigma^N$ based on a random sample of size $n$, denoted by $X^n \equiv (X_1, \ldots, X_n)$, drawn…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
Datasets encountered when examining deeper issues in ecology and evolution are often complex. This calls for careful strategies for both model building, model selection, and model averaging. Our paper aims at motivating, exhibiting, and…
We study a generalized discrete-time multi-type Wright-Fisher population process. The mean-field dynamics of the stochastic process is induced by a general replicator difference equation. We prove several results regarding the asymptotic…
Constructing valid inferential methods for constrained parameters in normal and Poisson distributions represents two fundamental and important problems in applied statistics, for which there is currently no unified framework for statistical…
Relative abundance, measured as the number of animals caught per unit of sampling effort (CPUE), is commonly used to monitor fish and wildlife populations, largely because sampling methods are cost-effective to implement. Modeling relative…
We use recurrent-events survival analysis techniques and methods to analyze the duration of Olympic records. The Kaplan-Meier estimator is used to perform preliminary tests and recurrent event survivor function estimators proposed by Wang &…
Extreme mutation rates in microbes and cancer cells can result in error-induced extinction (EEX), where every descendant cell eventually acquires a lethal mutation. In this work, we investigate critical birth-death processes with $n$…
Conventional survival metrics, such as Harrell's concordance index (CI) and the Brier Score, rely on the independent censoring assumption for valid inference with right-censored data. However, in the presence of so-called dependent…
Parameters of sub-populations can be more relevant than super-population ones. For example, a healthcare provider may be interested in the effect of a treatment plan for a specific subset of their patients; policymakers may be concerned…
The fitness of a biological strategy is typically measured by its expected reproductive rate, the first moment of its offspring distribution. However, strategies with high expected rates can also have high probabilities of extinction. A…
Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…