Related papers: Confidence Intervals for Extinction Risk: Validati…
Extinction times in resampling processes are fundamental yet often intractable, as previous formulas scale as $2^M$ with the number of states $M$ present in the initial probability distribution. We solve this by treating multinomial updates…
The i.i.d. censoring model for survival analysis assumes two independent sequences of i.i.d. positive random variables, $(T_i^*)_{1\le i\le n}$ and $(U_i)_{1\le i\le n}$. The data consists of observations on the random sequence…
Acquiring fear responses to predictors of aversive outcomes is crucial for survival. At the same time, it is important to be able to modify such associations when they are maladaptive, for instance in treating anxiety and trauma-related…
We consider the estimation of rare-event probabilities using sample proportions output by naive Monte Carlo or collected data. Unlike using variance reduction techniques, this naive estimator does not have a priori relative efficiency…
We present novel analytical results about ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse grained neutral model based on birth-death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing…
In the interest of conservation, the importance of having a large habitat available for a species is widely known. Here, we introduce a lattice-based model for a population and look at the importance of fluctuations as well as that of the…
The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…
Measurements are generally collected as unilateral or bilateral data in clinical trials or observational studies. For example, in ophthalmology studies, the primary outcome is often obtained from one eye or both eyes of an individual. In…
Approximating the time to extinction of infection is an important problem in infection modelling. A variety of different approaches have been proposed in the literature. We study the performance of a number of such methods, and characterize…
We propose a method to quantify uncertainty around individual survival distribution estimates using right-censored data, compatible with any survival model. Unlike classical confidence intervals, the survival bands produced by this method…
Classical confidence intervals after best subset selection are widely implemented in statistical software and are routinely used to guide practitioners in scientific fields to conclude significance. However, there are increasing concerns in…
A novel confidence interval estimator is proposed for the risk difference in noninferiority binomial trials. The confidence interval is consistent with an exact unconditional test that preserves the type-I error, and has improved power,…
'Evolutionary rescue' is the potential for evolution to enable population persistence in a changing environment. Even with eventual rescue, evolutionary time lags can cause the population size to temporarily fall below a threshold…
We study confidence interval construction for linear regression under Huber's contamination model, where an unknown fraction of noise variables is arbitrarily corrupted. While robust point estimation in this setting is well understood,…
This paper introduces Conformal Thresholded Intervals (CTI), a novel conformal regression method that aims to produce the smallest possible prediction set with guaranteed coverage. Unlike existing methods that rely on nested conformal…
We study the evolution in discrete time of certain age-structured populations, such as adults and juveniles, with a Ricker fitness function. We determine conditions for the convergence of orbits to the origin (extinction) in the presence of…
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of variational inference in latent variable models for survival analysis, emphasizing the distinctive challenges associated with applying variational methods to survival data. We identify a…
The extinction and persistence of infective individuals are closely related to the random change of the environment. In this paper, via the random/stochastic SIRS models, we analyze qualitatively and quantitatively the impact caused by the…
What, if anything, should a frequentist say about a single realized confidence interval (CI) and its chance of having covered the parameter? Jerzy Neyman's original answer was to refuse any nondegenerate probability for coverage ex post…
In clinical trials, inferences on clinical outcomes are often made conditional on specific selective processes. For instance, only when a treatment demonstrates a significant effect on the primary outcome, further analysis is conducted to…