Related papers: Ireland in 2057: Projections using a Geographicall…
This paper presents an approach for predicting the self-rated health of individuals in a future population utilising the individuals' socio-economic characteristics. An open-source microsimulation is used to project Ireland's population…
We perform stochastic microsimulations of the dynamics of England and Wales population after the British referendum on EU membership, considering different possible outcomes. Employing available survey data, we model the demographics of the…
Many dynamic microsimulation models have shown their ability to reasonably project detailed population and households using non-data based household formation and dissolution rules. Although, those rules allow modellers to simplify changes…
This paper relies on a microsimulation framework to undertake an analysis of the distributional implications of the COVID-19 crisis over three waves. Given the lack of real-time survey data during the fast moving crisis, it applies a…
We introduce a broad class of spatial models to describe how spatially heterogeneous populations live, die, and reproduce. Individuals are represented by points of a point measure, whose birth and death rates can depend both on spatial…
Dynamic microsimulation has long been recognized as a powerful tool for policy analysis, but in fact most major health policy simulations lack path dependency, a critical feature for evaluating policies that depend on accumulated outcomes…
This paper presents Living Globe, an application for visualization of demo- graphic data supporting the temporal comparison of data from several countries represented on a 3D globe. Living Globe allows the visual exploration of the…
Background: Many different simulation frameworks, in different topics, need to treat realistic datasets to initialize and calibrate the system. A precise reproduction of initial states is extremely important to obtain reliable forecast from…
The outbreak of a novel coronavirus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome in December 2019 has escalated into a worldwide pandemic. In this work, we propose a compartmental model to describe the dynamics of transmission of infection and…
We employ stochastic dynamic microsimulations to analyse and forecast the pension cost dependency ratio for England and Wales from 1991 to 2061, evaluating the impact of the ongoing state pension reforms and changes in international…
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations outlines 17 goals as global challenges for countries of the world to address in their development. However, the progress of countries towards these goals has been much slower…
Strategies adopted globally to mitigate the threat of COVID-19 have primarily involved lockdown measures with substantial economic and social costs with varying degrees of success. Morbidity patterns of COVID-19 variants have a strong…
Knowledge of population distribution is critical for building infrastructure, distributing resources, and monitoring the progress of sustainable development goals. Although censuses can provide this information, they are typically conducted…
Major life transitions demand high-stakes decisions, yet people often struggle to imagine how their future selves will live with the consequences. To support this limited capacity for mental time travel, we introduce AI-enabled digital…
The spatialization of socioeconomic data can be used and integrated with other sources of information to reveal valuable insights. Such data can be utilized to infer different variations, such as the dynamics of city dwellers and their…
We analyse extreme daily minimum temperatures in winter months over the island of Ireland from 1950-2022. We model the marginal distributions of extreme winter minima using a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD), capturing temporal and…
We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are…
Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in human communities is critical for predicting the trajectory of an epidemic and verifying various policies to control the devastating impacts of the outbreak. Many existing simulators are based…
We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…
Human trajectory data is crucial in urban planning, traffic engineering, and public health. However, directly using real-world trajectory data often faces challenges such as privacy concerns, data acquisition costs, and data quality. A…