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Understanding how droughts may change in the future is essential for anticipating and mitigating their adverse impacts. However, robust climate projections require large amounts of high-resolution climate simulations, particularly for…
Human mobility research concerns spatiotemporal individual and population movement. Accurate modeling and prediction of human mobility can provide opportunities to monitor, manage and optimize human movement for improved social-economic…
Population dynamics reflects an underlying birth-death process, where the rates associated with different events may depend on external environmental conditions and on the population density. A whole family of simple and popular…
We propose an epidemiological model using an adaptive dynamic three compartment (with four states) SIR(D) model. Our approach is similar to non-parametric curve fitting in spirit and automatically adapts to key external factors, such as…
A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…
Civilization produces knowledge, which acts as the driving force of its development. A macro-model of civilization that accounts for the effect of knowledge production on population, energy consumption and environmental conditions is…
Strong positive feedback is considered a necessary condition to observe abrupt shifts of ecosystems. A few previous studies have shown that demographic noise -- arising from the probabilistic and discrete nature of birth and death processes…
The Brain Drain phenomenon is particularly heterogeneous and is characterized by peculiar specifications. It influences the economic fundamentals of both the country of origin and the host one in terms of human capital accumulation. Here,…
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…
Growth in the global human population this century will have momentous consequences for societies and the environment. Population growth has come with higher aggregate human welfare, but also climate change and biodiversity loss. Based on…
This article is a presentation of specific recent results describing scaling limits of individual-based models. Thanks to them, we wish to relate the time-scales typical of demographic dynamics and natural selection to the parameters of the…
Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…
By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a…
Understanding and replicating the real world is a critical challenge in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) research. To achieve this, many existing approaches, such as world models, aim to capture the fundamental principles governing the…
Demographic and health indicators may exhibit short or large short-term shocks; for example, armed conflicts, epidemics, or famines may cause shocks in period measures of life expectancy. Statistical models for estimating historical trends…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
The rapid development of sequencing technologies represents new opportunities for population genetics research. It is expected that genomic data will increase our ability to reconstruct the history of populations. While this increase in…
As we gain access to a greater depth and range of health-related information about individuals, three questions arise: (1) Can we build better models to predict individual-level risk of ill health? (2) How much data do we need to…
It is increasingly recognized that the multiple and systemic impacts of Earth system change threaten the prosperity of society through altered land carbon dynamics, freshwater variability, biodiversity loss, and climate extremes. For…
This article presents a new model for demographic simulation which can be used to forecast and estimate the number of people in pension funds (contributors and retirees) as well as workers in a public institution. Furthermore, the model…